Morning everyone, quick update. Please take the time to read our previous post on this possible surf alert coming. We are now inside a 7 day window where model confidence begins to increase. Start you off with 00Z GFS just inside 7 days.
In the above image. 1038MB High over SE Canada, 998MB area of Low Pressure SE of Newfoundland. Thats Northerly wind flow dropping out of Nova Scotia with fetch aimed at the Carib, Tinge of NE aimed at Florida. This would get some Northerly wind swell going. Image is for Wednesday March 13th.
GFS then develops a 989MB Storm. IF…..the model were to verify this would get some N-NE Groundswell going. Seas would likely be in excess of 25 Feet in N-NE Groundswell developing 15 plus seconds. Outside shot some of this makes it to East Florida.
Switch you over to the EURO same time frame image for March 13th. Same similar setup so both the EURO and GFS are in a fair amount of agreement. This helps build confidence in the upcoming forecast. Euro with a 1003MB GALE in the above image.
1001 MB GALE on the 15th. IF…the EURO were to verify would likely be seas in excess of 20 Feet in N-NE Groundswell developing and again outside shot some NE groundswell makes it to East Florida. Now watch, on our social media platforms someone will comment, when ? Then you know they didn’t bother to read what we wrote. And someone will comment , what about South Florida. Then you’ll know that person didn’t bother to read our post.
Gunna shift gears on you a bit. We are not a big fan of sharing model images outside of 10 days. The above image is the GFS for March 21st. Thats 2 Weeks from now. If you are a long time follower you have heard us say this before. If you are new please remember it. You will hear it often come Hurricane Season.
” Always watch Tail Ends of Fronts or Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop….Sometimes LP likes to Attach Itself to the Tail”.
I like using LP when it comes to defining spin. Put the needle on the record when the drumbeat goes like this 🙂 You spin me right round baby right round like a record baby 🙂
This is the Hi-Res imagery from 2 days ago. Do you see the similarities between the Satellite Imagery and the GFS Above ? Here’s another one for you. Sometimes weather likes to repeat itself. Although nothing has come out of what you see in the imagery above the same pattern may repeat itself with a far reaching different result. It is these Gulf Lows this time of year that can produce some of the BIGGEST Snowstorms. We are approaching the 26 Year Anniversary of the Storm of the Century. That storm started off just like this. NOT SAYING another one is coming. Am saying it’s that time of year.
Thanks for taking the time to read our post. Please spread Da Wurd…Wurd of Dabuh.