Morning everyone, We have started posting here on our site again. If you didn’t get the chance, please read the previous update a few days ago to get you in the swing of things. We are primarily a Surf and Marine Forecast with a focus on the NATLC (North Atlantic Basin). We dabble in the NPAC (North Pacific) during winter swell season. During Hurricane Season we track for Tropical Cyclones in both.
With that said, if you are not a surfer or a mariner this post is not for you unless you just want to learn what surfers and mariners look for.
So here we go. Possible Surf Alert setting up. Please do not take this post as the gospel. Don’t want to get accused of hype. All winter long models have not been very good in run to run consistency past the 7 day mark. We hear alot from our followers that we are good at picking out patterns 10 days out. Sometimes we are only as good as the models are unless we can actually see it coming together in the satellite imagery. Ironically we are heading to PR in about 2 weeks so this will be perfect timing.
This first image is the EURO +192. This is the number of hours so divide by 24 that equals days. So this is just inside of 8 Days. Once you get inside of 7, based on what was said above, model confidence begins to increase.
EURO with BROAD low pressure moving off of New England. What I’m showing you above with the Black arrows is fetch. Thats Northerly winds cranking up on the backside of the broad Low.
The above is EURO at +216 just inside 9 days. Notice how the Northerly wind flow is pushing South of the OBX (Outer Banks of North Carolina). Also take not of how the solid small Black lines are closer together (Tighter) this is gradient. The tighter the gradient the stronger the winds. When dealing with fetch like this you have to calculate for length and width along with gradient. As pictured the above would likely be GALE Force winds out of the NNE from Georges Bank to well East of the Mid-Atlc with the fetch aimed at Eastern Carib.
Finally EURO +240 just inside 10 Days, March 15th. The broad low now shifting East. Take note of the 3 vorticity spins within the main ring. Black lines tight with a bit wider fetch of Northerly winds. The wider and longer the fetch the more area of Northerly winds pushing over the surface of the ocean.
So this is what it looks like in the Windy App for week from tomorrow. For those who didn’t see this the Windy App is now following us on Twitter.
Then the below on Thursday
We primarily only follow only 2 models. The GFS and the EURO. to show you the difference between the 2 on this call here is the GFS for Thursday next week. 2 Things to note. The High parked behind the AZORES and the strong Southerly Suck-up along the Mid-Atlc.
So thats it for now. Stay tuned to our social feeds by following us on Twitter @DaDaBuh…on Insta @DaBuhSurf and on Facebook @Dabuh