Uptick in Possible Tropical Cyclone Development SURF ALERT ?


Here we go into the real-time phase of what we talked about in our last update. Start you off with the latest out of the National Hurricane Center with what is likely to become Tropical Storm Florence then Hurricane Florence into Labor Day Weekend. This system will help setup Possible Surf Alert Coming. We will begin dialing that in over the next several days. Lots of time to watch and analyze keeping in mind its swell, distance, travel time and arrival so lots to work out.

Closer to home we are monitoring for Possible Homegrown Development coming to the Gulf of Mexico. This is this mornings enhanced visible.

The overnight run of the EURO is still head strong on this feature and track. Compare the imagery above where the 1st Red Dot is to the image below. This is Day 5 Sept 4th

This is Day 7 Sept 6th. This is pretty much on shore winds for everybody. Don’t complain just surf.

This was early morning visible and is the energy for what you see in the EURO above. As of this update the NHC is not mentioning anything about this system. So while everybody is keeping an eye on the backdoor the front door looks to be wide open.

Latest NOAA OPC 96HR Swell Forecast showing 1st Signs of Winter Swell Season. Northerly Swell dropping in from Storm Force Low currently near the tip of Greenland with building long period ESE Hurricane Swell.

This mornings Surface Analysis NOAA OPC Storm Force Low

72HR Swell Forecast

To throw some more in the mix the pattern may be setting up for an OBX Low Coming. This is partially why you see NE Wind swell in the image above pushing South of Newfoundland.

EURO is hinting at a vorticity spin developing dropping SW. Last nights run +240 (10 Days). Thats it tucked under the OBX. Weak in the model run but this is just 1 run but stronger than previous so we will be monitoring model trends next several runs.

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