Morning everyone, POSSIBLE Surf Alert Continues. As mentioned in our previous update the exact details are still trying to get figured out. As for now we will call it a Mid-Atlantic Event. Not sure how much or if any makes it down into East Florida. 1st things first.
We now have verification of late Season Storm SE of Newfoundland. This system has put a possitive charge of Northerly Swell in the water. Seas have now maxed out at around 25 Feet in NNE Swell.
Latest 48HR Swell Forecast 12-13 Second NNE SWELL propagating through SW Atlantic Waters.
Question for Island Surfers now focused on size. We are under a DaBuh-WEE Watch. Paul West Bermuda the one to watch. Buoy Obs 101. First thing we are looking for is swell directional change. Then Period and Size sometimes in reverse. Looking at the data below, We see single pings of East and North. 1st signs of swell directional change. The buoy only has 2 feet of Swell Height out of the SW. Over the next 24hrs we will be watching for MAX Swell height. Buoy needs to have at least 10 foot on it to provide a decent bump for the islands. Weight and Sea.
Next Up will be this front. Rule of Thumb, “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop”. This COULD be setting up as a classic example.
Latest Run of the EURO for Tuesday June 5th. If this were to verify would definately put a shot of NE Swell in the water headed for East Florida with light to offshore winds. It’s a PRAYER at the moment as the GFS has other ideas.
From there we could be watching for another repeat performance with a Tropical System coming out of the Western. Models are hinting and the pattern setting up favors it. This is last nights run of the EURO. If the model were to verify that’s Tropical Storm ALETTA in the Eastern Pacific. Would be their 1st named system of the season. Then the pattern suggest BERYL coming from another “Round the Corner Pattern ”
This is this mornings imagery. Thats a Tropical Wave moving through the Eastern Caribbean.
Although Tropical Cyclone Development is not anticipated with this incoming wave the process remains the same. Next time just add deep convection and it could be on.
Not every Tropical Wave induces Tropical Cyclone Development. In fact most waves pass through harmlessly other that increasing the chance of deep tropical rains. This process will repeat itself multiple times throughout the season.
24HR Surface Forecast out of the National Hurricane Center.
Latest run of the GFS. In the video we said we were showing you the 06Z. It might have been 00Z.
Below breaks our rule of posting outside the 240hr Mark. This image is +276, This is a little over 10 days from now. ALETTA EPAC the beginnings of BERYL WSTRN CARIB.
Now we may have been over confident in this but we did it anyways. We pinned this Tweet 13HRS Ago. Either we know what we are talking about or we will just be lucky if all of the above verifies.
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