Morning Everyone, ALBERTO is in the books, at least as far as landfall is concerned. We will still be tracking his remnants to see what role his ghost may play in the upcoming forecast period.
If you saw our last video update, posted on May 24th ( Latest on 90L INVEST ) we mentioned around the 411 Mark “Ok folks Heres where it gets REALLY interesting”. Well, here it is.
The Elephant March is On. Late season storm developing. This is yesterdays HI-RES. If you watched our first video of the season a week ago today May 20th “Welcome to the 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season” , we talked about how the ULL that crashed into the Bahamas on May 4th was the trigger mechanism that kicked off a, “Chain Event that has lead us to where we are today”.
We are now in another “Chain Event”. Looking at the imagery below take note of the Tele-Connection from the North Atlantic Storm near the Tip of Greenland. This has put a long period swell in the water heading towards the East Atlantic. Drop back from there towards Nova Scotia. That’s a *NEW North Atlantic Storm Developing that you have recently seen posted in our social feeds last 24-48 Hours. This will put a secondary charge of Northerly Swell in the water.
Drop back from there. Alberto making landfall on the Florida Pan Handle. Drop down from there and it’s ALBERTO’S Trough stretching into the ITCZ through the Western Carib for that “Repetitive Pattern” we spoke of. That’s that South to North orientation set up over the Western Carib we continue to be under. What is now Sub-Tropical Depression ALBERTO will continue to draw up tropical moisture into the U.S. because of this.
We have a SOLO Tropical Wave coming out of the MDR into the Eastern Caribbean next 72HRS. We will be monitoring this wave for another possible “Round the Corner” in the upcoming forecast period just like we saw with ALBERTO.
Yesterday we posted this to our Social Feeds just about 24hrs ago. The images are ALBERTO Making land fall in the Florida Pan Handle. A secondary swirl off the NE Florida Coast with the trunk of the elephant (ALBERTOS Trough) down into the Western Caribbean sucking up and taking in water for his march. The bottom right is the EURO at 10 days. (Possible BERYL)
Here is this mornings swell forecast out of NOAA’S OPC for the next 24HRS. You can see the swell generated by the Late Season Storm by the Tip of Greenland mention above in the HI-RES heading for East Atlantic.
Heres is this mornings first visible.
*NEW Storm Developing SE of Nova Scotia South of New Foundland. Look at the OBX. Minority Report Pre-Crime Division. No doubt the Pre-Cogs have seen this.
Here is the 96HR Swell forecast. Seas are forecast to increase excess 25 Feet in N/NE swell developing 12-13 second plus for late season swell heading for the Islands. We will go into a Buoy Watch in about 48HRS.
Then here comes the iffy part. Folks please keep in mind we saw this setting up a week ago.
The EXACT details are yet to be worked out. Latest discussion out of the OPC.
Beginning Saturday ?
“Could Potentially Produce a Long Duration STRONG Onshore Wind Event”
That’s all I have for you for now. Will likely cut a Youtube video update on this so stay tuned.
Going back to ALBERTO. A good forecaster ALWAYS goes back to see what was previously forecast for forecast verification. Back on May 15th and 16th we posted this to our Twitter Feed. We were detailing the pattern in a cryptic way on where we thought ALBERTO was going. It’s why some people just don’t get us, they have issues connecting the dots.
“This ULL (Upper Level Low) Screams 2 Things , Alabama Roll Tide and from a Surfers Perspective A Frames coming to the Gulf of Mexico.”
“A” for ALBERTO
Then when we began to hone in on track we pinned this Tweet. The Top Arrow is at the Florida Alabama Line. Did ALBERTO lift straight up ? NO, he didn’t. He shifted towards the East before rounding back to the Florida Pan Handle.
Based off our initial call May 23rd keeping in mind that forecasts are subject to change. Our margin of error was around 100 miles in 5 days based on recorded landfall location.
It’s Why We Watch—-> You Follow—->DaBuh.
This Mornings Visible. ALBERTO centered over Alabama.
We might not get it all right but I think we did pretty good on our first call of the 2018 Season.
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Thanks Again Everybody. Tell All U Frens Mo Frens Mo Betta….. Wurd of DaBuh