UPDATE 1PM EST Wednesday May 24TH
As of now based on current satellite imagery we are leaning towards a straight lift North of the Yuke.
This is a Super Zoomof the Center of the Gulf of Mexico.
Zoomed out a bit 90L INVEST is below the fram its coming up.
And full view. AGAIN the actual invest is out of frame. We EYE-SO for foucus.
LATEST VIDEO UPDATE UPLOADED 1PM
PREVIOUS POST BELOW******LATE EVENING MAY 22ND
Good Evening, here is the first update on this system now designated 90L Invest located in the NW Caribbean near and over the Tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. As of around 8PM this evening the National Hurricane Center increased the odds of development to 50% Chance of a Tropical Cyclone Developing (TD) that could eventually lead into Tropical Storm Alberto the first name system of the season.
With that said heres is our 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclon Season Disclaimer
DO NOT TAKE ANY INFORMATION FROM OUR WEBSITE OUR IN OUR FORECAST VIDEOS AS GOSPEL NOTHING IN WEATHER ABSOLUTE UNTIL IT HAPPENS IN REAL-TIME.
THIS FORECASTER HAS KNOWN TO HAVE BEEN WRONG BEFORE.
AND AS ALWAYS FORECAST SUBJECT TO CHANGE DAILY.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center at www.Hurricane.gov for ALL OFFICIAL Watches and Warnings. If Watches and or Warnings are Issued for your area please heed the advice of ALL local county state emergency management officials.
Start you off with todays HI-RES. This may be a bit much for some.
The EURO model has consistently shown a trend over the last several runs to go up and to the left. We can now see that in the imagery. If you watched our video we talked about Climo says Up or Up and to the Right but we talked about how sometimes storms will go against convention wisdom.
We now have support for this “Up and to the Left” from official forecast maps out of the OPC and NHC. The GFS continues to trail off to the right with a small vorticity spin that explodes as it heads towards Florida and we can now see that also as a possibility. It is possible to see Main Vort spin move into the Gulf AND the little explosive vort the GFS shows wrap around the corner of Wstrn Cuba in towards the Keys or SW Florida.
Let me tell you what you are looking at. Remember although the image is still the atmosphere is fluid. You have to put what you see into motion in your mind. If you don’t understand general flow you won’t get below. Late Season North Atlantic Storm Developing. Area of Low Pressure dropping into the Atlantic from Great Lakes Region and off the Mid-Atlantic up towards the Tip of Greenland.
The remnants of the first Tropical Wave of the Season. We talked about this in our video as a possible kicker. This could be the kicker GFS is trying to identify. We will have to see whats left at first visible light tomorrow. 90L Invest on Da Yuke.
This is a Super-Zoom of the ESTRN Side of the Tip of the Yuke/Gulfo de Hondura. This went from this to this to this——-> (Next Image)
In a about 5-6Hrs. This is the MAIN Vort Spin SLOWLY Developing.
The National Hurricane Center recently analyzed a 1OO9MB LOW just prior to image above.
The CURRENT official 96HR surface forecast call out of NOAA’S OPC is for the Low to move up into the Central Gulf and then onshore over Louisiana. The directional arrow is towards the left.
Heres this afternoons run of the EURO. You can see it appears NOAA is closely following the EURO model solution for 90L INVEST. As mentioned above and seen in the HI-RES imagery above there is Medium to Strong support that “UP or Up And to the Left” will verify. THE EXACT details are unclear at the moment going into day 5. It is possible this system could stall meander hang around for a few days dumping copious amounts of rain in its wake.
Florida Pan Handle Surfers no change in the wind forecast as of now. As detailed in our video discussion. PROLONGED period onshore winds coming in deep from Carib and Bay of C.
SSW to SSE Flow East-side of the circle. (OH)
We will leave 90L alone overnight to see what it looks like in the morning. Stay tuned in for that.
We will likely cut a video tomorrow morning after we get a few frames of visible stellite imagery and a chance to digest the overnight model runs.
Looking down wind this is the EURO just inside 10 days from now. Last couple of runs the EURO has been dropping hints at another “Round the Corner” type system coming. Incidentally the Low centered over Northern Alabama would be Ex-Alberto/90L INVEST. This image is for June 1st, OFFICIAL start of the 2018 season.
Image below from earlier this morning and is the 2nd Tropical Wave of the season. Look back up at the EURO above. Look at this image. Back up again. You should be able to put 2 and 2 together.
There some other interesting features behind this that we will be watching crossing AFRIKA next several days as well.
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