Welcome to the 2018 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. Welcome *New followers to our social feeds and Welcome Back long time followers who only follow us during hurricane season. Nice to see some old names handles and accounts popping back up.
Ok although the OFFICIAL start to the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season doesn’t start until June 1st (May 15th Eastern Pacific) Tropical Cyclones can and have developed in every calendar month of the year since record keeping began. One of our last post on DaBuh.com was a little over a month ago. We always like to go back and look at the last forecast update to see what ended up verifying.
Back on April 11th we posted “Switch to Tropical Season”. If you didn’t get a chance to read it check it out and drop down to where we start discussing the tropics.
Since then the switch is on. We have had 2 areas of disturbed weather monitored by the National Hurricane Center. One on May 4th in the Bahamas and another one on May 14th in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Neither system developed into a Tropical Cyclone but did aid it setting up some fun surf for select location. Now we are about to begin t monitor the 3rd area of disturbed weather in the upcoming forecast period. Additionally the National Hurricane Center has analyzed the 1st 2 Tropical Waves of the 2018 season in the last 48-72hrs out in the MDR, Main Development Region or Central Atlantic between Afrika and the Eastern Caribbean. No doubt the season is underway.
Early Seasonal Tropical Development- If you go back to the 2007 season. There have been 6 Tropical Storms Develop in the month of May. That’s 6 Storms 10 Years. The 2018 Season is just getting underway. Thats an average of 1 every other year. 2012 saw 2 in May coincidentally the same name list as used for this season. 2012 saw Alberto on May 19th and Beryl on May 26th. Additionally since record keeping began there have been 4 Hurricanes Develop in the month of May.
Here is a list All Early Season Tropical Cyclones since record keeping began.
Here is what we will be watching for over the next 3-4 days. Although the National Hurricane Center dropped the designation of the First Tropical Wave of the Season the entity is still there. Thats it East of the Eastern Caribbean Islands. It continues to move off towards the West. It is the vorticity spin along it’s axis that will likely kick the spin off that will be over the Gulf of Honduras. From there you can all see it setting up in the imagery how the latest 4 runs of the EURO have it.
The EURO takes the Low into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. The Low is trying to chase the tail end of the front. The Rule of Thumb is always watch the Tail Ends of Fronts, Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop. Sometimes Lows like to try and attach themselves to the tail end or ride the front.
Image for Thursday.
Then Friday going into Memorial Day Weekend
Then on Saturday as a Closed Low Possible Tropical Depression. Just off the coast of Louisiana.
From there, at least in this run mind you, (the EURO has had pretty much the same solution last 4 runs in a row ) the low does not move much from there. Here it is going into Day 10. Thats 5 days in a row of very limited movemnet (said 6 in our latest video)
The reason for that is, EURO back doors High Pressure and Blocks it. The Low is now surrounded by High Pressure. This system could sit and meander. Would lead to devastating flooding rains.
It is important to remember that Name or No Name weak areas of Low Pressure are known to produce copious amounts of rain. Especially ones that just sit and spin. A slow moving Tropical Depression/Storm can create as much havoc and or financial loss as a fast moving hurricane.
GOMEX Surfers looks like a shot at Surf Alert. Right now it looks like multiple days in a row of strong to moderate onshore flow. SSW to SSE winds coming up off the Yuke.
Latest Video Update- We will likely be stepping up website and video updates for the upcoming forecast period so stay tuned in for the updates and thanks for following.