Morning Everyone. We are now inside 96hrs for this next Real-Time Event. Models have been consistently showing a surface low developing dropping into SE States around Sunday. Timing and track is still suspect at the moment. The big difference in what models where showing several days ago is, models now want to keep this system close to the coast as what we call a Coastal Runner. Models previously headed this system moving further off the coast and towards the NE.
The difference? Instead of NE Fetch and off the coast now it will be ESE fetch aimed at the coast. The fetch line starts around the lat 30 Line and will quickly move up the coast.This is this mornings Water Vapor imagery. Although the image is still movement is from left to right. The Low is forecast to DVLP near or around Louisiana and you can now see it lining up in the imagery.
This image is for Sunday. In our last update we mentioned the beginning of the switch to Tropical Season. Here it is, “Rule of thumb” Always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for area of Low Pressure to develop. Weak areas of Low Pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. Given the right time of year and the correct atmospheric conditions this process can and has lead to the development of Tropical Cyclones. In this image you can see where the model wants to take this system. Sweeps it to the right to near or just off the SE Coast then up into the Mid-ATLC. At this time there are still uncertainties in exact track and intensity.
This is the GFS Sunday going into Monday.
Small Craft Advisory Flags about to Fly. Latest Marine forecast South of the 31 line. Seas will quickly build 10-15 Feet and AT THE MOMENT looks like seas maxing out around the 20 foot mark as this system moves up into the Mid-ATLC region going into Tuesday.
As mentioned above LOTS of uncertainty in intensity and forecast track. As for now the GFS is an Outlier so take this image as a grain of salt but factor in a what if for Tuesday.
The FUN Surf Alert looks to come on Thursday as winds go offshore South of the OBX and work their way up coast. EURO for Thursday.
Thats it for now. We will be monitoring for the tweaks in the forecast next several days so stay tuned in for updates.
Little recap on our last forecast update posted 8 days ago. ” MASSIVE NATLC Storm”
Alot of folks think that when we use words like “MASSIVE” we are hyping.
Heres what verified. A 942MB BOMB
NOAA OPC Analyzed
942MB Hurricane Force Low.
This image earlier in time than the image above.
In reference to Climotology.
5 in the past 50 Years.
On average Happens 1 in about every 10 years
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