Morning everyone, lots to cover in this update. Hope you will read through all of it. A MASSIVE North Atlantic Storm/Hurricane Force Low is likely to develop in about 5 days. There still is some uncertainty on exact fetch at the moment. Unfortunately for U.S. Surfers this system will likely not produce anything for the U.S. East Coast. Periods might be there, size will not. The main Energy Source/DNA moved off the OBX yesterday and is on its way towards the North Atlantic. In the tropics, we are now approaching the 30 day mark for the “Official Start” of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season. The Eastern Pacific Tropical Season Officially begins May 15th.
Alright start you off with a couple of post from our social feeds to set the tone.
Back on March 28th we talked about an OBX Low Coming in about 10 plus days.
We are now in that Real-Time Phase.
Yesterdays HI-RES. Let me tell you what your looking at. The 1st OBX Low moved off 3 days ago.
This system moved off towards the NNE and developed into a Hurricane Force Low South of the tip of Greenland. The second is the one indicated by the read arrow SE of the OBX in the image below. There’s a reason why it appears like there is a hole in the clouds. This is the exact spot were NOAA analyzed the area of Low Pressure yesterday. The second arrow leading off towards the NE is where its forecast to go. Notice how it also has the appearance of a hole in the clouds. “Minority Report Pre-Crime Division” for those who know what we are talking about.
Latest NOAA Surface Analysis. If you look at the “07” and the “X” above it, compare it to yesterdays HI-RES you should be able to connect the dots. Remember this if you plan on following our forecast updates for Hurricane Season. Imagery can dictate where a system is headed and is a vital part of pattern recognition.
This system is the one that lead us to post this back on April 4th a week ago today. Pretty sure there was some Fun Surf Central Florida down towards South Central Florida last 2 days. More importantly with Mark Zuckerberg in the news look at how many this post reached in 7 days and was liked by 5 people.
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FYI Twitter is where we post it all first.
So this system that moved off the SE U.S. Coast yesterday is part DNA for this MASSIVE Storm thats about to develop. Here is the latest 96HR Surface Forecast out of NOAA’s OPC office.
From the above Hi-RES Image to this 988MB GALE SW of Ireland. But look at the Developing Gale coming off Newfoundland. NOAA only goes out 96HRS on their Official Forecast Maps.
Heres the latest run of the GFS. These 2 are going to combine into one LORD HUMUNGUS System.
The Ayatollah of Rockin Rolla. The area of Low pressure that moved off the SE U.S. East Coast yesterday now West of Ireland on Sunday with the next incoming system into the basin passing over or near NF……
We joked around with Carve Magazine and James Van Fleet yesterday on Twitter. “ET Phone Home” and “Mind the Gap” ET because this system will be photogenic from Outer Space and “Mind the Gap” between the CURRENT Swell form the current Hurricane Force Low off the South tip of Greenland and the gap time from this NEW one developing. I promise you there is a method to our madness.
Image is for Monday. Two areas of Low pressure combining into a MASSIVE Storm System.
As mentioned above still some uncertainty on exact fetch. There also currently are some differences between the GFS and EURO on Max Seas. For now calling it 35-40 Feet in WSW Swell Developing. This system will also produce a long period NNW Swell component down into West Afrika.
Stay tuned for Real-Time Updates on our Social Feeds. We may do a Youtube Video Forecast Update on this as well so Stay Tuned.
As mentioned above we are approaching the 30 Day Mark for the Official Start of the 2018 Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season. Season starts May 15th for the EPAC and June 1st for the Atlantic.
34 and 51 Days respectively. Yesterday we saw the first signs of the impending season to come with some convective flare up in the ITCZ near Central Amerika.
On the Atlantic Side Early Seasonal Forecast have been issued calling for a slightly above average season. We personally do not put stock into early seasonal forecast with the thought in mind its simply pure speculation. With that said here it is out of Colorado State University.
The season is always the same in reference to where it starts. Heres Climo on Tropical Cyclone Origin Points for the period May 11th-20th. Some of you may be wondering if the season doesn’t start til June 1st why is he showing me May. That is since record keeping began Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin can and have formed in every month of the calendar year. May/June is the time of year it typically starts.
Here are the typical June Tracks.
Thats it for now. For U.S. East Coast Surfers and West Florida Surfers Strong Southerly Suckup Coming with what could be a STRONG Vigorous front for West Florida. Image is for Monday April 16th. This is also the reason why that BIG Massive Storm in the North Atlantic probably will not have an effect here state side. Southerly Flow into Northerly Swell can be a swell killer.
But wait there’s more. Not a lot of confidence outside 10 days. Image is for 12 Days +288HRS.
Snow Cane ? Will be monitoring next several runs to see this inside 10 Days.
Major Swell Event Coming ?
Stay Tuned and Follow Us on our Social Feeds for Real-Time Updates.
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