Morning everyone, hate to sound like a broken record, but if you want to learn about swell production and have not read our February 8th post entitled “End of Winter Swell Season” you should. There are several factors that play into it. Size, Shape, Duration, and Location Location Location. Yes the NE is on like 4 Nor’Easters in a row but when we talk about “Winter Swell” or “Major Swell Event” we are talking about swell for the Majority of surf breaks. Since that post we had one Super Major Swell Event, Winter Storm Riley. It now appears in the satellite imagery there is another one the horizon. With this one coming, we will need to add another element, “Direction of Travel ” so here we go.
Latest out of NOAA OPC 72HR Surface forecast showing Low Pressure cutting its way across the Central U.S. next 72HRS or so.
This is this mornings IR setting it up. The energy for this Low currently over WSTRN U.S. with the NE current storm tucked in just South of Cape Cod.
Long Time followers….Minority Report Pre-Crime Division. No Doubt the Pre-Cogs have seen this. Same image as above but zoomed into where the crime is about to take place.
Latest NOAA OPC 96HR Surface Forecast. Take note of the 1046 MB High over Canada. This is likely going to be a Blocking Mech setting up. Notice the NE Winds from Newfoundland. This is going to get NE Wind Swell going as it pushes down into the LOW/GALE DVLPNG off the SE Coast.
If you follow us on our Social Media than you saw this post yesterday where we mention the word “STALL”. This mornings discussion out of the OPC……
NWS Ocean Prediction Center
330 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018
A developing low will move off the SE coast Sat night, pass E over the southern nt2 waters Sun while strengthening, then become nearly stationary just E of the nt2 area Mon and Mon night while continuing to strengthen.
Now there still is some uncertainty with this system. The GFS is not playing along with the EURO and the details should become more clearer next 48HRS or so. For this exercise we are going with what the EURO suggest based on the satellite imagery posted above.
Here’s the EURO for WEDNESDAY 7AM.
Please remember when viewing the image below it is a snap shot of time.
All though the image is still the atmosphere is fluid.
Latest Swell Forecast. The Image below is for TUESDAY so 24HRS earlier than the above image. The EURO is now showing seas in EXCESS of 45 Feet in NE Swell DVLPNG. This is a slight increase than previous runs. If you go back to the OPC 96HR forecast above. Notice the WSW winds at Storm Force. This is one of the reasons why the CURRENT Storm off the NE Coast was a Localized Swell Event for MID-ATLC through NE Waters minus some REEF-RACK-TION Swell for SOFLO.
This means that the Low will move off the SE Coast Move NE and then Double Back or Retro. This will put another swell charge in the water if the EURO Verifies and this adds the other element, “Direction of Travel ” to the mix. AND we can not rule out a “STALL” at the moment.
Thats it for now. Stay tuned will likely do a video update soon. Follow us on our Social Feeds for Real-Time Updates. Tell All U Frens, Mo Frens Mo Betta. Spread Da Wurd, Wurd of DaBuh