It appears the end of Winter Swell Season has arrived starting with the SW Atlantic Waters. The North Atlantic looks as if it is going into it’s last gasp in the upcoming forecast period with back to back Hurricane Force Lows that will keep the basin in a primarily Westerly Swell component.
The North Pacific also looks like it also is starting its turn to Southern Hemi Swell Season as the Southern Hemi transitions into their Fall with Winter on tap. Winter Swell Season for the North Pacific is typically defined by Hawaiian Contest Season which runs on average November through the end of February. These are the times when Low Pressure can depart Japan into the North Pacific and develop into Hurricane Force lows near and around the Aleutians producing Large WNW Swell.
For SW Atlantic Waters, South of Lat 30 out through the Eastern Caribbean, Winter Swell Season is defined by Low Pressure coming out of the Gulf to the Mid-ATLC or moving off the Mid-Atlantic and then rapidly intensifying into a Hurricane Force Low, East of New England, and South of Nova Scotia. These systems are the ones that can rock the Bahamas out to USVI during Winter month’s. Last one was Grayson. On January 3rd an area of Low Pressure departed from South Florida rapidly intensifying into a Hurricane Force Low off the Mid-ATLC on January 4th. Had the lows position been where the Red Circle is located it would have produced a much much larger swell than what this system actually did. Location, Location, Location. It’s possible we could see one more. Historically, last week of February first week of March can produce some classics. Some of the Biggest Snowstorms on Record have occurred in the month of March so at this point, never say never, but the window is closing.
So whats on tap. Start you off with the SW Atlantic Waters. Chance for a decent bump in size next week as the Easterly High Pressure Gradient may tighten up a bit increasing swell heights. We are seeing a typical pattern of Spring setting up. Get what you can because it appears a period of flatness or near flatness is coming for the entire U.S. East Coast in the extended. This is the latest 72HR Wind Wave Forecast out of the National Hurricane Center. We see a LARGE area of seas 10-12 feet under ENE Winds 20-25Kts. Image below for Sunday. The ESTRLY Trade Wind Flow into the East Caribbean through the Bahamas looks to continue for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon run of the EURO for Monday. Wide fetch of ESTRLY Trade Flow and you can see some barbs at 30-35KTS. If all of them were 30-35kts we would likely call for Fun Surf Alert coming.
We will see what happens over the weekend but looks like a decent bump coming Tuesday Wednesday Central Florida to select locations through the SE.
In the North Atlantic. Last Gasp of Winter Swell Season ? Last of the Hurricane Force Lows ?
Afternoon run of the EURO for next Wednesday Valentines Day. 950MB Hurricane Force Low NW of Ireland. This should set Nazare up for another big swell. Looks like another Hurricane Force Low after this one but there’s some iffy-ness in the models at the moment.
If you had any doubt that the first signs of spring are here look no further than this Sunday’s high temp forecast from the GFS. 90 over the Tip of the Yuke. 93 Near Havana Cuba and 83-85 Central into South Florida.
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