This recent Arctic blast may not have you thinking of Spring but we are seeing the first signs in the most recent model runs of the GFS. Meteorological Spring begins March 1st, the Equinox March 20th. Given these dates, 41 days until the 1st of March, and 61 until the 20th, the atmosphere doesn’t necessarily go by dates. Sometimes spring comes early sometimes it comes late. First things first. This really hasn’t been a typical winter pattern and that has translated over as surf goes. Yes we have had a couple of runs of good surf with the passing of Winter Storm Grayson and the recent run of surf over the last few days. We typically see Low Pressure moving out of the Gulf of Mexico out towards the OBX and kick off into a Hurricane Force low in the Atlantic, or an Alberta Clipper dropping into the Mid-ATLC region then into the Atlantic kicking off as a Hurricane Force Low. These are the ones that send the Long Period Groundswells to the Bahamas and throughout the Eastern Caribbean.
With that said, it brings me to an old saying we like to use. Sometimes like in History Weather Repeats itself. There are many examples through time. The most recent example is yesterday as we had a Hurricane Force Low kick off the OBX.
Flashback to January 18th 2017 Area of Low Pressure moving across the OBX….
That would later become a Hurricane Force Low 3 days later after dropping SE then lifting back towards the North. The results this time however would be far different from the one yesterday. 2017 sent HUGE swells towards the Islands.
Lets jump back to current. Yesterdays Hurricane Force Low has jumped way out towards Nova Scotia. Because of its rapid departure it didn’t get a chance to stay over our portion of the Atlantic to generate a booming swell. Max Sea Heights got up there near the 30 Foot mark but was primarily in WSW Swell.
However it did create a nice pulse of Northerly now inbound towards the Islands. Latest NOAA 24hr Swell Forecast.
As of Report Time……10AM EST
South Hatteras Buoy- NNE Swell 8 Feet 11 Seconds, down from 10 Feet
Paul West Bermuda- North Swell 14 Feet 12 Seconds, down 1 from 15
East Canaveral- ENE 4 Feet 11 Seconds (The East is left over from OMEGA Blocking High from our previous website update)
NE Bahama Buoy- North Swell 13 Feet 12 Seconds (Buoy showing slight increasing trend)
South Bermuda Buoy- NW Swell 7 Feet 9 Seconds (This Buoy is the outside indicator Buoy for PR) and it’s coming up fast and hard and showing first signs of swell rotation from ENE to NW.
So if you are in the Bahamas over to PR looks like a solid bump is now inbound.
So here comes what looks like the first signs of Spring. Mind you its just a sign. This is the GFS for week from today. High Pressure moving into the Mid-ATLC. This will get some NE winds going.
Then rotating to more East on Day 8 with some Northerly flow coming off Nova Scotia and NF as an area of Low Pressure Develops.
Day 9 Winds Rotating ESE into the SE as Bermuda High Sets Up (Sign of Spring Coming) Low pressure develops on the backside. This should produce another inbound swell for Eastern Caribbean.
Then going into Day 10. True Bermuda High with nice fetch of ESE trade.
Heres a zoom of the GOMEX and another sign Spring is on the way. When ever we see convection start to pop over the Gulf this time of year, Tornado Season is just around the corner. It coincides with the onset of Spring (March) so we say its the “March” towards the peak of Tornando Season which is in May.