Here’s the latest forecast update. We are now entering the Real-Time Phase of an OMEGA Blocking High developing out in the Atlantic next several days. What is an OMEGA Blocking High ? In Summer, we would call it a Bermuda High. Thats where an area of High Pressure develops out near Bermuda and sits and spins for days on end. This is what gives the Atlantic that Summer Time ESE Trade Wind Swell. In Winter, we call it a Blocking High. When its LARGE we call it an OMEGA Blocking High. It “Blocks” areas of Low Pressure from moving out into the Atlantic essentially putting up a wall. Low Pressure Bumps into the wall and then gets shunted towards the North and Northeast.
Heres the GFS for Saturday. The Low you see near the OBX/Mid-ATLC is partial energy of the Low thats currently moving through California this morning. Its going to trek across the U.S. next 3-4 days and bump into this wall of High Pressure with no place to go but up. The High is “Blocking” it.
Here’s how you think about the High. Think of it as a car tire spinning clockwise, the tread touching the ocean surface. Because the tread is so wide it is moving a greater area of water (Fetch).
Here’s the GFS at Day 7, week from today. The High has shifted slightly towards the West but still WIDE Fetch of ESE Trade Winds but here is where things could get interesting. Notice the difference in precipitation above and below out in the Central Atlantic. Models have been hinting at a weak area of Low Pressure may try and develop that would allow some tightening of the pressure gradient. This would increase some size of the ESE Swell. Another High moving in turning winds NE North of the Bahamas.
Then here’s day 9. MIND YOU, there is not alot of confidence outside of 7 days at the moment. There hasn’t been alot of model agreement as of late. The only thing with confidence at the moment is the OMEGA Blocking High. GFS develops an area of Low Pressure allowing more Northerly Swell to get into the mix of the ESE Swell coming.
Thats the model forecast. For now here’s whats happening now. This image is from around day break. The weak Low that moved into the GOMEX bumping of Florida Pan Handle surf yesterday is forecast to dissipate. Weak area of spin near the Bahamas looks to retrograde back towards the Florida East coast increasing the pressure gradient next 24hrs or so. You can already see signs of it. Look at that little white dot over Central Florida. It should move out at the same time as the spin out near the Bahamas retro’s.
Latest Wind Wave forecast out of the National Hurricane Centers Tropical Atlantic Forecast Analysis Branch showing seas increasing into double digit territory next 48HRS just East of the Central Florida Coast.
Latest Swell Forecast out of the Ocean Prediction Center over the next 3-4 days showing ESE wind swell developing with High Pressure Southerly return flow into New England.
Here’s what that Southerly Return Flow looks like. Image for Friday. Looks like West Florida gets into the mix as well.
Thats all I have time for at the moment. Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.
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