Forecaster Note: The post below is covering SW Atlantic Waters. Will do our best to put together a post for NATLC . Active Phase Ahead with what appears to be 2 More Hurricane Force Lows Developing near and around the South Tip of Greenland Upcoming Forecast Period. Prolonged Period of Westerly Storm Force Winds and Wide Fetch Possible. Seas excess 40 Feet ? Stay Tuned. See Images bottom of the post.
Alright guys and Gals here we go. Would like to take a moment for any new followers, or first time readers, or to those who may be new to our social feeds. What we post on our social feeds are often times model ideas. Please read the text portion of our post. If we say “Outside of 10 days”, or “1 RUN” then you should know, everyone should know, that when talking about the forecast and forecast model reliability, confidence begins to increases inside the 5 day mark. How we do it is we analyze a 10 day period, watch for trends in the models in the back to back model runs and verify what we see in the imagery on a daily basis. We put those ideas on our social feeds. Once we have confidence inside the 10 day period of a potential event coming up we put our full thoughts out here in an website post. So please don’t take what we post on our social feeds as the Gospel. There is always, always, always, the element of the unknown. In forecast weather nothing is a certainty. The saying goes, “Nothing in Weather Absolute Until it Happens in Real-Time.” Having years of repetitive Real-Time observation of atmospheric flow and an understanding on how atmospheric flow works helps.
With that said, here comes the Flip. The SeaSaw we alluded to in our social media post a few days ago. If you read our last update (Coming up on 2 Weeks Ago) the 2 things that come to the front is, The prolonged period of Lake Atlantic and flatness for Majority U.S. East Coast Surfers (CHECK) behind a predominantly WNW Swell Component setting up in the NATLC (North Atlantic) (CHECK)
NOAA 24hr Swell Forecast
The next thing we talked about in that update was for some hope of Long Board Peeler behind High Pressure Build in the East Atlantic. There is change since that last update. High Pressure Wind Swell still on tap but trend is now moving to Possible Surf Alert Setting Up. Models have been consistent on placement of moderate High Pressure in the East Atlantic for over a week now and we are approaching the Real-Time Phase in the atmosphere now inside the 5 day Mark.
Image below is the GFS +120 (5 Days X 24hrs)
For those who don’t know what they are looking at.
High Pressure Parked East Central Atlantic. Thats ESE Flow starting up.
High Pressure rolling out into the Atlantic with a weak OBX Low now forecast to move away from the coast next 72-96 hours. Whats left of it is depicted below on the backside of Bermuda. This will add some NE Fetch into the mix. Storm over the Interior U.S. creating a moderate Southerly Suckup into New England backed by High Pressure.
Heres the Weak OBX LOW in the latest wind wave forecast out of NOAA OPC next 72-96HRS to help get the ball rolling. NE Winds developing 20-25KTS Seas Increasing 10 Feet in mixed swell.
Image in meters. NE Fetch then rolls out as depicted above.
Here’s Day 7 Christmas Day. High Pressure Advancing West Into the Central Atlantic. Nice Fetch and Multiple Days of ESE Flow gets that side of the Atlantic heading this way in positive wind swell direction and production.
The Possible Surf Alert sets up after Christmas. This is the EURO for December 27th, 9 Days from now showing High Pressure still in control Central Atlantic with a moderate NE Surge working down the coast from New England. Thats NE Winds 20-25KTS.
This is the GFS Same Period faster and more aggressive than the EURO
Either Way this is a positive trend and a Pattern Shift away from that primarily WNW Swell component we are currently under now. Stay Tuned looks like we will be stepping up our updates as the forecast begins to unfold.
North Atlantic Followers. This is 00Z GFS Day 7 (Week from Today)
and Day 11 Wide Fetch Storm Force Westerly Winds.
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