Today marks the Official End of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season.
If you read our previous update, this also marks the transitional period of season change from Fall to Winter or from Tropical Cyclone Season to ExtraTopical Cyclone Season. This will run us into the end of February or there about. Extra Extra Read all about it.
Now entering the Real-Time Phase of a Possible Major Swell Event Coming. If it doesn’t pan out for you where you live don’t shoot the messenger. Please remember the forecast challenges we detailed in our last post. We do our best to provide you with the latest forecast based on model guidance going out at least 10 days and pattern recognition. I promise you know one else on the internet is putting out this info in the way we detail it for you here on DaBuh.com in hopes that you score good surf.
With that said, first signs of Long Period NE Groundswell showing up in NOAA’s Swell Forecast Maps as Low Pressure begins to develop out in the Atlantic next 72-96HRS.
Start you off with yesterdays Hi-Res. This time of year is all about understanding Atmospheric Flow. Weak Low Pressure moving out away from the Bahamas up to the North Central Atlantic will associate with the Storm Force Low that developed. Thats the Red Arrow SE of Newfoundland in the image below.
This Storm Force Low has dropped SE and has produced seas in excess of 30 Feet. This mornings Wind Wave Analysis out of NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center showing MAX Seas now at 35 Feet. This exceeds the original forecast vs Real-Time and it appears models were a bit under-done. Again one of the many forecast challenges for this time of year is model performance showing you one thing one minute another the next. It’s what happens in Real-Time that matters.
Latest Swell Forecast 14-16 second swell periods developing. Like we discussed in our previous update its not about the Storm itself its the swell direction we are focused on at the moment. Half the Atlantic in a Northerly Swell component with Easterly building across the top.
Heres the latest 96HR surface forecast out of the OPC edits mine.
Key word is “Absorbed” here. This will open up NE Fetch.
This is how that looks in the latest 96HR swell forecast. Thats 8-10 seconds building into the Mid-Atlantic region. As of right now the forecast is calling for GALE with seas in excess of 20 Feet. The issue at hand is current models are further East and weaker with the next system coming in.
Heres the latest forecast discussion out of the OPC.
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
255 AM EST THU 30 NOV 2017
Models should start to get a better handle on this next system coming over the next 24HRS or so as better sampling of atmospheric conditions over the U.S. will begin to take place. Wish we had more for you but thats it for now. Keep in mind that just because models show a further East location and a weaker system it doesn’t mean they cant switch back heading into the weekend. As of now looks like a large Northerly Swell heading for the Caribbean. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time updates and thanks for following our forecast updates.