Ok here we go finally something worth posting about. In our last post November 9th we talked about the challenges this time of year when it comes to forecasting. Transitioning away from Tropical Season into Extra Tropical Season. The switch from Hurricane Season in the tropics, to Hurricane Force Lows in the North Atlantic. Think of this if you will, as Hurricane Season in reverse. Which we are now 4 days away from closing out the 2017 season. What we mean by that is during Hurricane Season, we look for areas of Low Pressure moving off Afrika into the Atlantic that can develop into a Tropical Cyclone. During Winter we go into reverse, looking for areas of Low Pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast that can rapidly intensify into a Hurricane Force Low or a Extra-Tropical Cyclone. The difference between the two here. Depending on the size, shape, pattern and location of these Hurricane Force Lows they can at times produce what we call is a Major Swell Event.
That is, seas in excess of 25 Feet creating swell periods of 13-15 seconds plus with a majority of land locations receiving large surf conditions. Remember just because we say Major Swell Event and it doesn’t break at your location it doesn’t mean its not going off at someone else’s.
Ok with that said Models have been hinting at a Major Swell Event coming in the upcoming forecast period. Many of you recently saw our post that models are trying to go on lock with 2 Large areas of Low pressure coming to the Atlantic. The pattern is just starting to setup. Start you off with yesterdays Hi-Res. We have been talking alot recently about AZORE Lows going back to that November 9th post. Here we have another one. This one has been out there for about 72hrs.
And has put a charge of NE Swell in the water heading for the Caribbean. As of report time the South Bermuda Buoy showing small scale NE swell 3-4 Feet at around 14 seconds. Nothing Major but its the swell direction we are focused on at the moment. If you look back at the image above the Low that moved out of Florida that dumped the heavy rains has now slid up towards Nova Scotia putting a WSTRLY Swell component in the water.
But thats ok because a NEW AZORE Low is now forecast. This will put another charge of NE Swell in the water reinforcing the current NE Swell setting up for that Possible Major Swell Event coming. This NEW AZORE Low is now forecast as a Storm Force Low next 72-96HRS.
Latest NOAA 96HR Surface forecast.Seas are forecast to 30 Feet next 72-96HRS. Image is in Meters, 9 Meters, 30 Feet.
Then heres where things get interesting. Show you the difference CURRENTLY between the GFS and EURO going back to size, shape, pattern and location mentioned above. The current run of the EURO shows weak low pressure moving out of the Bahamas on Day 5 ( Friday 12-1)and the AZORE Low weakening.
Then on Day 8 ( Monday 12-4) 982MB LOW Centered on Nova Scotia. This would primarily send swell to the Caribbean some into the Bahamas but by passing U.S. East Coast Locations in a NW Swell Component.
But lets look at the GFS for next Monday. GFS with a weaker Low but more NNE Fetch reinforced by the ESTRLY Fetch from AZORE Low with High Pressure Stack. This would create a positive in swell production.
But then look what happens on Tuesday Day 9. GFS wants to Retro the Low back down towards the South a tad while strengthening it. This would open up more NE Fetch for U.S. East Coast while aiming a Strong Northerly Swell at the Bahamas over to the Virgin Islands. and again keeping the Atlantic in a Northerly Swell component. If the GFS were to verify that would be seas like the current AZORE Low to 30 plus Feet but now U.S. East Coast closer to the swell source.
Still along ways out so lots of time to watch. 12Z Model runs are just coming out so stay tuned to our social feeds for the updates. In the short term it looks like some increasing High pressure wind swell into Florida starting around Mid-Week with the Caribbean scoring off this developing Storm Force Low out near the AZORES.