Sorry for the non updates as of late as there has just not been much to talk about. This is the time of year in terms of forecast where it becomes a bit more challenging as we transition away from Tropical Season to Ex-Tropical Season (Winter). In layman’s terms that transitional period from Hurricanes in the tropics during tropical season to Hurricane Force Lows in the North Atlantic during Winter. Same effect for the Pacific basin. Winter is the time of year that produces Big Swells in both theaters behind Hurricane Force Lows developing in the Northern Waters. This is why Hawaiian Contest Season runs November through January and everybody trying to head to PR and the surrounding Islands for surf during these months as well. Unfortunately based on conditions of the Islands alot of people who normally go may skip this year.
It is also that time of year where models struggle and become unreliable outside of 7 days. Many of you may remember at the beginning of the 2017 season the GFS showing fake hurricanes each time moving it to the back end of each run. Then by the time we got towards the peak of the 2017 season the GFS figured it out and became fairly accurate beating out the EURO on several occasions. Well, the GFS has recently been up to its old tricks and the EURO has been showing something different each run.
We are now 21 days away from the OFFICIAL end of the 2017 season and up to RINA in the names list. Next system if one were to develop would be named SEAN. There are hints of the possibility. The EURO showed it for 1 run as a developing OBX Low but has since backed off. The GFS was never on board. Either way increasing seas and swell heights look to get underway for this side of the Atlantic Basin starting tomorrow. This is yesterdays HI-RES. Remember this pattern come May come June of 2018. This type of pattern is known to produce tropical cyclones at the beginning of the season.
That is. “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts, Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop.”
That saying is year round, just has different effects in Winter vs Tropical Season. Again image below yesterdays HI-RES. That’s RINA well to the back side of Bermuda. High pressure to the right. Cold Front dipping through the lower 48 with areas of spin down in the Caribbean. The front is about to suck up that energy to the Bahamas behind building High Pressure increasing the pressure gradient. The other old saying for this time of year in association with fronts and pattern is “West to East Flow (Jet Stream) produces OBX Low.”
For those who follow us on our Social Feeds you know we have been talking about a POSSIBLE OBX Low developing for the last several days. Heres the latest discussion out of NOAA’S Ocean Prediction Center.
Switch you to Real-Time. This mornings imagery. Alot of people think we just draw arrows on imagery or don’t understand atmospheric flow. So let me tell you what you are looking at here. We recently have been posting on our social feeds (Mainly Twitter) about an AZORE Blocking High Developing. Here it is in Real-Time. Thats the H out to the right. As the West to East Flow develops across the Lower 48 it blocks the energy from moving West to East. It’s like bumping into a wall creating a block in the Atmosphere. Because of its Clockwise flow its shunting the energy to the North Atlantic combined with that West to East Flow. Latest forecast showing the area currently over the OBX as a developing GALE being absorbed into area near Great Lakes and SE Canada as developing Hurricane Force Low near the Tip of Greenland next 48-72HRS.
Latest NOAA 48HR Surface Forecast
Walk you through the latest run of the GFS. Image is for Sunday with New High building trough New England with continued NE Flow into Florida Weak Low Pressure trough into the Bahamas AZORE Blocking High putting Easterly Fetch in the water combined with Easterly Trade Wind Flow. Hurricane Force Low near the Tip of Greenland.
GFS for Monday take note of Developing Low South of AZORES. This could add more ENE Fetch over the Long Term.
Then on Wednesday, thats inside of 7 days the GFS develops a NEW Low just off of Nova Scotia. This would put some longer period swell in the water.
Then take you out to Day 9, November 18th. Mind you not alot of confidence at the moment past 7 days but another Hurricane Force Low NW of Ireland. This would put more Long Period NE Swell in the water. By itself would be no big deal for Western Atlantic Waters but add the NEW AZORE Low with High Pressure Stack and thats alot of fetch AND unfortunately cold water mixing into the Atlantic.
Thats it for now. We will likely cut a video update on this so stay tuned. For Now follow us on our social feeds for updates. Latest NOAA 48HR Wind Wave Forecast Image in Meters. Seas Increasing 15-18 Feet off the OBX in NE Flow.