EXTREMELY active Northern Hemi Cap, Cap is on Fire. Clear sign of season change showing with an explosion in the West and North Pacific and the Pacific Jet has begun to crank up. Early signs of Pineapple Express and the 1st Winter Type Caliber Swell for the Pacific confirms the basin is extremely active. Can be no doubt contest season has arrived for Hawaii as we head into November. But yet it comes with bad news as it appears a very wet and dangerous period may be setting up with possible heavy rains coming behind weak low pressure coming out of the ITCZ.
Weak Areas of Low Pressure Known to Produce Copious Amounts of Rain.
Current look at the basin. Storm Gulf of Alaska….. Storm Moving into the Bearing Sea with Typhoon LAN headed towards Japan. LAN currently a Category 1 forecast to reach Category 4 Super Typhoon Status next 36hrs under a RAPID intensification phase. Speaking of RAPID intensification over on the Atlantic side. 2 Rapidly intensifying Hurricane Force Lows developing next 48hrs. More on that below.
From there weakening is forecast for LAN to Category 2 as it makes contact with Japan passing near Tokyo next 72 to 96HRS.
From there LAN looks to morph into an intense area of Low Pressure over the Aleutians next 5-7 days. GFS showing 951 Hurricane Force Low at 150HRS….
And dropping to 936MB just inside 7 Days.
Latest NOAA 48HR Swell forecast showing the 2 Swells in the water. One from Storm Gulf of Alaska and the other from the storm getting ready to enter the Bearing Sea currently located NE of Japan. Seas with this system forecast excess 35 Feet next 48 in WNW Swell developing. Both swells with 20 plus second front runners. Now add LAN morphing into Hurricane Force Low in 5 days.
Stay tuned for updates.
BUT WAIT…..There’s more.
The North Atlantic is also on fire with two Hurricane Force Lows developing next 48hrs. If you add OPHELIA to the mix, this will make 3 Hurricane Force Lows inside of 10 days for the basin, 2 of which will have had direct affect on Ireland, Ophelia and new incoming Hurricane Force Low.
Hers’s his mornings Look. Area East of Newfoundland on its way to Ireland. And the GALE developing East of OBX and the Large Scale Low moving across Canada, will morph into the 2nd Hurricane Force Low South of the Tip of Greenland.
Latest NOAA 24HR Forecast. Seas increasing to excess 40 FEET next 48.
Image in meters. This followed by….
Sub 950MB 00Z GFS just inside of 96HRS. This is seas likely in excess of 40 Feet as well. If you saw our last update we talked about how at times both basins, NPAC and NATLC, can mirror each other. Think about what you just read. Thats 3 Storms for NATLC and 3 Storms for NPAC.
Mirror Mirror on Da Wall…….
Heres the latest NOAA 96HR Swell forecast.
BUT WAIT……..Theres more.
We are still in Tropical Cyclone Season for the Atlantic. In our previous post we discussed possibly seeing PHILIPPE coming out of the Western Carib around the 24th of October. It now appears the front wont get deep enough and pulls up short developing an area of Low Pressure at the tail end along the Gulf Coast and spin up towards the NNE. Image is for Wednesday October 25th.
Then followed by a secondary Low 48hrs later. Image below is for Friday October 27th.
Long time followers know to “Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts or Along Stalled or Dying Fronts for an Area of Low Pressure to Develop.” The exact details will start to get worked out over the next 72HRSor so. October 25th is 6 days away and the 27th is 8 days away. Both systems are likely to put a STRONG Southerly Suckup in the water and ALL MARINERS with travel plans along the East U.S. Coast next week she recheck their travel plans.
Regardless of any tropical development coming out of the Western Caribbean there is a strong likely hood just like we saw 3 weeks ago a very wet and dangerous period setting up for Central Amerika with Flash Floods and Life Threatening Mudslides.
Stay tuned will likely cut a video soon maybe after the 12Z Runs later today.
Will add it to the top of this post.
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