Sorry for the non updates as of late. We had strictly regulated ourselves to our Social Media feeds on what became Hurricane NATE. We now have Tropical Storm OPHELIA out about a 1000 miles SW of the AZORES and It appears the Northern Hemi Cap is about to fire as the Pacific Jet begins to crank up this week as a key indicator Atlantic switching to Winter Swell Season with what appears to be back to back Hurricane Force Lows setting up in the North Atlantic.
For those unaware we are primarily a Marine and Surf Forecast entity covering the North Atlantic and sometimes the North Pacific during Winter Swell Season. However we like to tell people you don’t have to be a mariner or a surfer to follow our forecast because during Hurricane Season we are a Tropical Weather Expert in pattern recognition.
To give you an idea for those who don’t follow us on Twitter (Its where we post all of our thoughts 1st not all info is shared to our other platforms) we posted this on September 28th 2017. It was the afternoon run of the 12Z GFS for October 7th and beside it was Hurricane Mathew of 2016.
The caption “Sometimes Like in History WX (Weather) can repeat itself.”
Some may have mistaken what we were trying to point out and assumed we were saying another Hurricane off the East Florida Coast when the GFS was showing South Florida.
Here’s what we meant. October 7th 2016 Hurricane Mathew
October 7th 2017 Hurricane NATE
Ironically there was a point that the GFS was showing this early on for October 7th
Ok so where are we now.
First start you off in the North Atlantic where the remnants or DNA of Ex-NATE will get absorbed into a North Atlantic Low causing Rapid Intensification of a North Atlantic Hurricane Force Low next 48HRS.
Seas increasing 35-40 Feet in WSW Swell 15-18 seconds developing. This would be the 2nd Hurricane Force Low of the season for the NATLC with another one likely in about 7 days. Again a key indication Winter Swell Season is underway.
Next we are watching for a weak area of Low Pressure moving up North of PR towards the Florida Coast next 4-5 days as a little sneaker swell.
Latest out of the Ocean Prediction Center 96HR swell forecast showing some 8-10 second periods headed for the Florida Coast with seas increasing 10-12 Feet in ESE Swell.
The hope is OPHELIA creates a little background for the Low forecast for North of PR for maybe a little added bonus. Weight and Sea.
From there we are monitoring what looks to be the last of the Mahicans (Tropical Waves0 coming off Afrika and the same Pattern that gave us NATE could give us PHILLIPE coming out of the Western Caribbean around the 24th. Why is the 24th important. Hurricane WILMA October 24th 2005. Up until recently the last MAJOR Hurricane to make landfall in Florida.
12Z GFS is loading as of report time. This is 06Z GFS for Day 9. Thats 9 Days from today and is 1 RUN of many more to come. Whats the Rule of Thumb ? ” Weak areas of Low Pressure Known to Produce Copious Amounts of Rain”
Then later in the run, as in A LOT LATER, so take this with a grain of salt for October 25th but also keeping in mind what was said up thread, “Sometimes Like in History WX (Weather) can repeat itself.” and what we showed you with the last of the Mahicans.
Stay tuned we will let the 12Z RUN maybe EURO (330PM Complete) and will likely add a video update to this post. For now stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.