Long week ahead as we are now in the Real-Time phase of where we left off of our last forecast video update posted 6 days ago. In it, there were several things we discussed. One, that we would be looking for a repeat performance of what we just saw with BEE-a-triz in the EPAC.
We now have 3-E, the 3rd Tropical Depression of the 2017 EPAC Season. Outside chance of seeing KAL-vin but with no matter. Weak areas of Low Pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. Heavy rains, life threatening conditions with potential for mud slide anticipated for much of Central Amerika into Mexico over the next week. Models have consistently shown, run after run, low pressure development in the Gulf of Hondura now just inside of 7 days. While the image is still, the flow is from right to left across your screen.
It appears the last piece of energy responsible for spin up giving rise to a possible Tropical Cyclone coming to the Western Gulf of Mexico, is the last of 3 T-Waves located in the Eastern Caribbean. Current NHC surface analysis, emphasis mine.
If you look back at the satellite image above, the T-Wave just SW of the Cape Verde Islands is separated from Eastern Caribbean T-Wave. There is another wave behind the current Afrikan Wave pushing off the West Afrikan Coast. These two waves are coming across the MDR in tandem.
The month of June on average, sees a Tropical Cyclone 1 every other year. 2016 saw 3, BONNIE, COLIN and DANIELLE. This coming weekend will be the 1 yr anniversary of DANIELLE and at the same time we will be watching for possible development coming out of the Carib. Sometimes weather repeats itself.
If we look at Climatology for 2nd week of June for origin points of Tropical Cyclones, the pattern is clear. When spin develops in the Gulf of Hondura, the majority of track is a straight lift through the YUKE Channel, then off to the right in a natural flow. Then notice the 3 tracks leading into the Bay of Campeche. Rarely when spin develops in the GOH, does it cross over the YUKE into the BOC.
There are two different patterns that create these tracks.
When the GFS was first hinting at Tropical Development, run after run it showed the direct lift into the Gulf through the YUKE Channel matching Climo. Then, when EURO finally came on board in the 10 day window, it started the shift to the West and to a weaker system. The EURO now has a model track into the Bay of Campeche, the other track historical shows.
The difference between the two tracks is this. The straight lifting is what we describe as a “Hooking Pattern.” It is an EPAC energy lifting North, getting sucked up and “Hooking Up” with the front, just like we saw with BEE-a-triz. The other is a Northern Extension or Center Axis of a Tropical Wave moving through the Caribbean. First creating spin in the Southern Caribbean (not always), near Costa Rica. Then “Rounding the Corner”, into the Gulf of Hondura. This typically leads to a more NW track as flow is already established from East to West then High Pressure builds into the Atlantic and pushes it the rest of the way.
Here is an example of “Hooking Pattern”.Here’s an example of T-Wave Rounding the Corner. This now looks to be what the models are showing for possible development this coming weekend.
Looking at this image below you can see how the contour of the land can help facilitate spin once an area of Low Pressure gets in either one of these two basins. What is also unique is the depth of the ocean in the GOH. This can provide “Deep Ocean Content” when the waters finally warm up enough to support Tropical Development.
This is the latest run of the GFS for this Sunday June 18th showing Low Pressure developing in the Gulf of Hondura. The one commonality of the models over the last 5 days or so has been Low Pressure development in this location. Going back to climatology above the odds are stacked in its favor.
00Z EURO also Next Sunday. This is inside of 7 Days where model confidence begins to increase.
We will leave this update right here for now. Will add a FRESH forecast video update to this post shortly, so be sure to check back for it, as our focus down wind could shift to whats coming in the 10 Day EURO. The two Tropical Waves traveling in tandem mentioned above, one may have a chance at development once past the 50/60 Long Line.
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