Sorry for the delay in a forecast update. We just want to be confident in what we post on our website when it comes to the forecast. In our last update we talked about the little background NE swell coming that gave a little bump down into Florida over the weekend. We also talked about 91E INVEST that turned into Tropical Storm BEE-a-triz down in the East Pacific. The EPAC is now up 2 to 1 over the Atlantic for the start of the 2017 season and the pattern is shaping up for a 3 to 1 advantage coming up in the extended forecast.
Also discussed were the remnants of BEE-a-triz or 2 Pieces of energy being sucked up with the front into the Western GOMEX and then off to the right in its natural progression. We are now in that Real-Time phase of where we ended our last forecast update with the 1st Yellow X of the 2017 Season for the Gulf of Mexico. There is zero chance of Tropical Development with this.
However this appears to be a dry run for whats to come as models picking up on a repeat performance coming in the extended that could have far different results. This mornings satellite imagery Western Gomex.The 2nd piece of the puzzle is the main driver of this event. This is picking up whats in the GOMEX and lifting it out as this pushes off towards the East. Left to right in the image.
These two features will draw alot of deep tropical moisture out of the GULF in through the NE U.S. in a SW to NE Flow aloft. This image is for Monday. Will likely take until Wed/Thurs to clear. Although no tropical cyclone formation is anticipated weak areas of Low pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. The rains coming will likely lead to the end of drought conditions for many locations. This will make the entire United States virtually drought free.
Our attention will then shift to these 2 tropical Waves. This mornings Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Map. Notice that SAL is now non existent in the Eastern Caribbean. This means that if these two waves can slide out underneath the current SAL and get past the 50/60 line they will have a chance to breathe and open up their lungs a bit.
Long time followers have heard this many times before. Sometimes like in history weather patterns can and do repeat themselves.
So we just saw BEE-a-triz in the EPAC with her remnants lifting up into the Bay of Campeche. This is the 06Z GFS for Day 10. One run of many more to come. Will KAL-vin develop and also become a cross dresser instead of a dry run ?
As far as surf goes I’m still looking into that latest out of NOAA OPC showing nice NE Flow Developing going into the 2nd half of the week. This is Georges Bank
Down into Cape Hatteras to Murrells Inlet
Down into NE Florida Waters
Stay tuned may do a video forecast update this afternoon. will post it here in this post so check back or follow us on our social feeds.