Yet another late season North Atlantic Storm. This mornings surface analysis out of NOAA’s OPC showing 992MB Storm ESE of Newfoundland moving up to SE of the tip of Greenland with GALE in tow East of New England.
This mornings imagery.
This will put another late season NATLC NE Groundswell in the water just like last week. Very rare this late in the season. Latest NOAA 96HR swell forecast for May 3rd 13-15 second periods heading South off the coast of New Foundland. Although not a Winter Type caliber swell seas are forecast to excess 20 feet in NE Swell.
Current GALE East of New England putting a little pre charge in the water offering up relief for Mid-Atlantic states through New England standout spots could see head high. Will go into a buoy watch as NE background could filter down into East Florida from this GALE this weekend bumping the surf up a bit so stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Update.
Here comes the Official start of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. Although Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin can, and have formed, in every month of the calendar year, they are more common in the months of June through November so the Official Date for the season is June 1st through November 30th. Anything forming outside of that is considered an out of season storm. The Eastern Pacific season starts May 15th and is well underway with already recording its first named system. NOAA is now calling for an above average season for the Atlantic Basin.
We are now monitoring 91E INVEST in the East Pacific. Currently the National Hurricane Center is placing odds of 60% chance of development. Regardless of development subscribers are reminded weak areas of Low pressure known to produce copious amounts of rain. This type of pattern is also known to produce Tropical Cyclones. The beginning and end of the season we always watch for homegrown development. This is tropical cyclones developing in your back yard. TRUE homegrown development is a tropical cyclone developing that models did not see coming.
Several days ago models were hinting that an area of Low pressure would develop in the Western Gulf of Mexico and then move off in its natural progression off towards the NE. Model skill over the last 2 weeks has been horrible past the 5 day mark. However now that the players are on the board we can watch it in Real-Time. The 96HR surface forecast does show a NEW Low but currently moves it back inland.
It is something that we are monitoring. Looking back up at the satellite imagery above and comparing it to the latest run of the EURO this is 10 days. What the model suggest is two pieces of energy get sucked up through the Western GOMEX with the next front. That is likley the energy from 91E INVEST East of the Florida Coast with a secondary piece Central Gulf of Mexico.
The 2017 season is about to get underway. Next named system for the Atlantic would be BRET and BEE-A-TRIZ should 91E INVEST develop.
Remember just cause models dont show any development doesn’t mean something cant develop.
Stay tuned. Follow us on our Socials. For the 2017 season during times of heightened activity you can set your notifications for our Real-Time post.