Models Hinting Uptick in Tropical Activity Coming


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What a fun run of surf last several days do to a combination of factors including recent Tropical Storm AR-LEEN. We always like to go back to see what we talked about in previous forecast updates. This video  ” Update Easter Swell 2017 “   was posted 10 days ago. What was described in the video update 10 days ago we just experienced in Real-Time. We followed that up with this video update 92L INVEST ?
We are now in the Real-Time phase of that update starting at around the 4:15 Mark of the video.
Latest 96HR NOAA Swell forecast picking up on 1st Signs of Poseidon in a 3 prong attack. This is coming from High Pressure stacking in backside of Bermuda and AZORE Low that has DNA from Tropical Storm AR-LEEN. 2017-04-26_083437 Eastern Carib also showing 1st signs of Poseidon this morning. Whats happening in this image is Easterly trade wind flow is pushing into the Eastern Caribbean meeting up with the Eastward moving tail end of the current front. This is a sign of North to South orientation. This can lead to tropical development over time and a key signal tropical season is here.2017-04-26_081840
The pattern that is developing over the next 10 days or so is known to produce tropical cyclones. You have the East to West flow of the ITCZ combined with Easterly trade wind flow as 1st signs Tropical Waves season is about to resume coming off Afrika. This at the same time of fronts sliding through with a North South orientation leaving both of these patterns chances at increase  in an uptick in Tropical Activity coming in the upcoming forecast.2017-04-26_070614
This is the 10 DAY EURO. Sometimes like in history weather patterns can and do repeat themselves. How I want you to think about this is the Low in the image right portion of the screen replaces what was Tropical Storm AR-LEEN (NOT suggesting its going to be another storm) and moderate to strong offshore SW flow at the same time of swell arrival time just like we just saw last could of days however this time with a Tropical Low getting sucked up out of the Caribbean be it SW or Eastern into SW Atlantic waters.2017-04-26_090606
10 Day GFS and so far good agreement as far as pattern is concerned.  2017-04-26_105542
I will say this the GFS seems to be back to its old tricks and that is developing something almost every run but pushing development all the way to the back of the run. This is why its important that you try and stay in a 10 day forecast window once the model starts hinting at development. This is the 06Z run of the GFS for 14 DAYS and it waited until the last frame for development. Something it has been doing for the last 2-3 days. For now its about pattern recognition and its there now setting up.2017-04-26_110456
Stay tuned for the video forecast update. Will post it at the top of this post. Will have more info on the next incoming swell showing in the NOAA 96HR Swell forecast image above.
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Here’s a look at this mornings OBX/MID-ATLANTIC Low we thought had a good chance of hanging on the OBX described in our video forecast update 10 days ago. Stay tuned for the updates Big Swell setting up in the extended forecast.2017-04-26_080741

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