Entering Real-Time Phase of Clipper Pattern detailed in our forecast updates over the last couple of weeks. Possible Surf Alerts setting up from Florida through New England as a GALE begins to develop off the Florida East Coast next 72 hours or so lifting up towards New England. We can now see it setting up in the imagery. This means strong offshore wind flow along the coast from the OBX through New England bottom half of the semi circle once it lifts North so the swell will get knocked down quickly. Remember the atmosphere is fluid when looking at the image below and the flow is from left to right with a dip coming in out of Canada. The Low over Newfoundland combined with the dip is pulling down cold air mean while the Southwesterly flow aloft coming over Baja and Mexico through the Gulf adding the moisture.
Latest 72HR surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing area of Low pressure exiting the Central Florida coast lifting past NE Florida waters.
96HR Surface forecast out of NOAA’s OPC moves the Low up into the Carolina waters.
With the latest wind wave showing Seas increasing to near 25 Feet. Image in meters. Take note of the strong offshore flow 30Kts over the Georgia.
Latest 72HR wind wave out of the National Hurricane Center image in feet.
Lots of uncertainty as models trying to change up a bit however very active period ahead next 2 weeks.
Latest run of the EURO showing “Repeat Performance” inside of 10 Days ? Image for March 20th.
Please keep in mind just because it might not be breaking at your house doesn’t mean its not going off at somebody else’s. A good forecaster always goes back to see what he said last week, In this case two.
If you go back to our forecast video 13 days ago, titled “Repeat Performance” we recapped the GALE that provided most with the last Surf Alert and talked about “Pattern Recognition” .
Couple things to highlight from the video,
“In the month of March some of the biggest snow storms have come in the month of March”
“Always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for an area of Low pressure to develop”
Although its 2 weeks old we are now in the Real-Time phase of this event.
Heres the link to that video “Repeat Performance”
Stay Tuned will likely add a video update to this post.