Remember, just because it’s not breaking at your house doesn’t mean it’s not at somebody else’s.
The light switch has been flipped to on in the back to back runs of the EURO Model in reference to the area of Low Pressure coming out of the GOMEX detailed in our previous update “First Signs of Spring.”
GFS is trying to get there but remains weak at the moment. EURO on the other hand showing LARGE scale GALE coming. Was hints of possible STORM but has backed off in the overnight. Weight and Sea. We are now inside of 5 Days to kickoff this event with the transition period setting up this weekend.
Latest NOAA 96HR surface forecast showing NEW 1012MB Low moving out towards Bermuda from the SE U.S. Coast. This puts the backside of Low with building High Pressure into a Northerly swell component. Question at the moment is how tight the P-Grad gets in between and how Low can it go,
pressure not track.
GFS below for Monday. The last time we went through this drill a couple of weeks ago the GFS had a significantly stronger Low with the same scenario however the model did not verify during the Real-Time phase. It switched up and moved the Low on a more Northerly track coming out of the SE in the consecutive runs so not a ton of confidence at the moment however the most recent runs of the GFS is starting to line up with the famed EURO which gives the best chance at a sizable swell coming for this side of the Atlantic.
The EURO below also for Monday also showing weak Low moving out towards Bermuda. The X-Factor is the EURO brings in a larger deeper Low and drops it into NW Atlantic waters coming over Newfoundland.
Image below is for Wed with the EURO combining the two Lows making it when two become one.
Nice fetch of NE winds and moderate to strong Northerly flow. Then on Thursday the EURO lifts the Low in retro back up over Newfoundland and poof is gone.
Last nights marine forecast discussion out of NOAA’s OPC
THEN ON MON/MON NIGHT AS NOTED EARLIER THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW TO CONSOLIDATE E OF THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER NRN/CENTRAL NT2 WATERS MON NIGHT. BUT THE 12Z ECENS MEAN INDICATES THAT THE 12Z ECMWF MAY BE BOTH TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR W WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE JUST CONTINUED TO USE THE 12Z GFS IN THE LONG RANGE, BUT IN A SLIGHT COMPROMISE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WILL GO AHEAD AND REPOPULATE THE MON NIGHT FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE 18Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH FORECASTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NLY GRADIENT. SO WILL THEN ALSO REPOPULATE MON NIGHT WITH THE 18Z WAVEWATCH III.
This is yesterdays 12Z run of the EURO with the above MAY be to strong and to far West. Either way looks like best shot at large scale surf coming for somebody on this side of the Atlantic.
The other side is getting theirs next 3-5 days in the form of long distant WNW swell. Not often you see a band of 20 second swell periods (Purple) fanning out into the East Atlantic.
This swell generated by Hurricane Force Low a few days ago off the NE U.S. Coast 72 hours ago.
Max seas ended up around 40 Feet in WNW swell. Here is the current sea state analysis. Seas remain elevated to near 30 Feet in the far offshore waters. This is the secondary swell depicted in the swell forecast above that will put a secondary shot of WNW Swell in the water before hopefully switching to NE.
GOES satellite imagery for Thursday morning Feb 16th and Its on the board now a matter of Weight and Sea. Stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time Updates. It’s coming.
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