Pushed for time. First signs of spring showing up in the latest model runs. What an intense phase we have had for the first 6 weeks of 2017. Lost count on numbers of Hurricane Force Lows for the North Atlantic and the Western U.S. continues to get hammered with more heavy precip on the way. For the first time it its 50 year history the Oroville Dam is being tested for it’s most extreme design scenario. If you go back to our Jan 5th Post titled Main Event to Kick Off this Weekend we talked about a possible Climatic Event. Here it is. The shift from “Extreme Drought” to “Extreme Precipitation” Newtons 3rd Law.
Heres how this is setting up. Remember flow is West to East or left to right in the image. The Jet is pushing into Hawaii setting up atmospheric plume of moisture.
GFS kicking it off in 5 days. Prayers for the dam to hold. Take note in the above image of the area over Texas and then near Southern California. This is headed East towards the U.S. East Coast and plays into the Surf Forecast coming up for the Atlantic and what appears to be first signs of spring coming.
Switch views. Previous Hurricane Force Low (10 in the last 2 Weeks ?) off the NE Coast South of Nova Scotia. This has put swell in the water. South Hatteras Buoy this morning 6-7 FEET 11 Seconds out of the NNE. The main part of swell is heading into the Caribbean and the Entire East Atlantic. This will move up into the NATLC next several days. Area over Texas headed East and will interact with area dropping in from the Great Lakes.
GFS takes these two and combines for a 972 in 72HRS with another shot of NW Swell for the Caribbean.
It’s this weekend coming that we are seeing the first signs of spring coming with weak low pressure Central Gomex. Image is for Saturday.
Going into Sunday
Then one week from today SE of OBX as a 1012MB GALE developing.
Stay tuned will likely cut a video update this afternoon after the afternoon model runs come out.
Will post it here.
Latest NOAA 48HR Swell forecast.