What a run of swell last 30 days or so, for everyone from the Pacific, to the Gulf of Mexico, along the U.S. East Coast through the entire Atlantic all in one active phase for this side of the Northern Hemi.
We always like to go back and look at our previous post for forecast verification.
Do we always get it right ? No, but we like to think we are more right than we are wrong. In fact, if you go back and look at our forecast updates over the last 30 days it appears to us we were pretty much on point. What do you think ?
This was posted New Years Day. Since this post the last 30 days have been exactly that, intense and it’s not over yet as the North Atlantic is set to EXPLODE.The period started with Typhoon AU-RING for the Philippines January 7th. This is the time of year that what happens in the NPAC can often times mirror over in the North Atlantic 2-3 weeks later. We are now entering the Real-Time phase of an EXPLOSIVE period coming up for the North Atlantic as the phase has shifted from the Pacific and now to the Atlantic. Then after AU-RING, the NPAC set up for a relentless Westerly flow which in turn set the Western U.S. up for a continuous onslaught of swell and precipitation. This led to record amounts of snowfall and heavy rains that have all but eliminated the California Western U.S. Drought. California has suffered through many droughts for hundreds of years and the worse ones appear to be followed by a period of increased or heavy precipitation events, Newtons 3rd Law. This one came in a period of 45 days or so with a Pineapple Express Event, So not counting last years precip that put the dent in the drought, just the past 45 days that finished the drought. The Swell Event for the Pacific is just beginning to phase down with Mavericks going off behind the recent Hurricane Force Low produced near the Aleutians and the coastal storms that have battered the coast. The window for the EDDIE is beginning to close for 2017 as the next phase does not appear in the forecast models through the first two weeks of February.
Then came Winter Storm HELENA and a GALE that developed NE of PR. This image is dated the 9th of January and set PR and Islands up for a nice run and fun surf alert and for the Western Atlantic.
This turned the majority of the Atlantic into NE Swell.
Then on January 17th we posted.
Followed by 2 days later on the 19th Active Phase this Side of Northern Hemi.
This active phase saw Monterey Bay California Buoy record its largest seas in 30 years recording seas in excess of 30 feet reaching a max of 34. The previous record was 32 Feet recorded in 2008. It saw the Gulf Of Mexico with the highest seas excess 20 Feet since Hurricane HER-MEEN giving GOMEX riders something to ride and we just witnessed seas in excess of 25 Feet along the Mid-Atlantic with this most recent coastal storm. Then there was our post on the South Florida Phenomenon of the REEF-Raction Swell this week. This doesn’t leave out the recent Hurricane Force Lows of the North Atlantic or the spawned tornadoes and lives lost with the recent batch of severe weather. It appears with Florida’s refusal at Winter, Spring may be just around the corner and may come a little early this year. It’s not out of the question to see it 30 days earlier than normal for the SE. Wont be long and we will be March-ing are way into it with February a short month.
We are now at T-MINUS 125 days for the Official Start of the 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season.
So whats next. The Atlantic is now on lock down just as the Pacific was with an all Westerly Swell component up coming forecast period with the North Atlantic set to explode with some of the deepest pressures season to date.
00Z EURO showing Low Pressure 1002MB exiting the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in 96 hours headed for the NE Atlantic.
This Low appears to be the catalyst for an incoming BOMB just West of Ireland Day 6.
Image is for Thursday the 2nd of February.
The 00Z GFS with a MONSTER 943MB so good agreement between the models inside of 7 days where confidence begins to increase.
Latest 24HR NOAA Swell Forecast showing NW Swell from previous NATLC Hurricane Force Low heading towards West Afrika and the development of the ALL Westerly Swell component setting up for the Atlantic with no relief in site leading into February.
Latest NOAA 96HR Swell ForecastAnd the above is before this drops in off the Mid-Atlantic in 96HRS.
See model forecast detailed above.
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