VIDEO UPDATE ADDED BELOW
JANUARY 5th 2016
Intense weather to start 2017 continues. Main Event for U.S. East-coast this weekend.
In our last update we mentioned the phrase Climatic Event. This is often confused with Climactic Event. Climatic having to do with timescale of Climate, and Climactic meaning the top of scale or height.
A crescendo if you will, a gradual increase in loudness and its about to get loud. Lots of moving parts this side of the Northern Hemi next 7-10 Days. After a typical Climax a period of calm usually follows so stay tuned as exciting times remain ahead.
California Drought a Climatic Event ?
Over the last 4-5 years California has suffered through X-Treme drought. Most would consider this as a Climatic Event. Periods of drought have existed many times in the timescale for the Western U.S. When the reverse happens (an exceptional period of rain) The same can be said. In the last year a steady stream of precipitation was been flowing into the Western U.S. allowing statewide California reservoirs to recover to 88% of historical levels. One of the ingredients missing has been winter snow pack. Missing no more as 42 Inches fell overnight from Jan 3rd to the 4th with more on the way this weekend.
12Z GFS for Monday. This is inside of 5 days and Winter is not over yet. In fact it looks like its just getting started out West and the door is wide open for more to come. We may be witnessing the Climax of a Climatic Event in Real-Time as the beginning to the end of the California Drought. Once spring arrives and snow pack begins to melt should be lots of H20 around.
We also talked about that the North Pacific possibly producing a MASSIVE swell giving an legitimate shot at the Quicksiler WSL 2016-2017 EDDIE. Jury is still out at the moment but looks like pattern trying to setup for it in the extended forecast. Weight and Sea. 12Z GFS staring the chance of next 96HRS.
Image for Sunday Storm developing NW PAC GALE NE PAC. More on this to come.
Next is the the Main Event for the U.S. East-Coast and the there after. There is an outside shot at a Possible Historic Snow Storm. There’s lots of uncertainty at the moment with track. There should be a valuable lesson everyone learned this year with Hurricane MATH-YOO. With the impending storm coming it is no different. It is important to not focus on the center of the storm. Shifts to the West or East of 50 to a 100 miles will have dramatic effect on the forecast. It could slide further East and accumulative snowfall of any meaning could up being a bust.
This is the CURRENT Official 96HR forecast out of NOAA’S OPC. This will change over the next several days as with all forecast. How much still TBD. This is more of a Southern Track across Florida which could lead to further East of the OBX then what some of the models have been hinting at. 35-40KT NE winds cranking up in the Northern Gulf on off the OBX. Missing from this image are the words Rapidly Intensifying. We think at some point in the upcoming forecast those words will magically appear.
Surfers take note of the 35KT Stationary Gale right hand portion of the image. This is partial energy of the Double Barrel Low-AZORES Low we have been detailing in previous updates and our forecast video. Mind you this is 96HRS out.
We discussed verification by satellite imagery in our last update. This is a zoomed in view of yesterdays EOSDIS Hi-Res imagery.
And now the bigger picture.
Sometimes things take time to develop. The EURO has been suggesting that the Tail End of the front from Low moving across Florida this weekend may interact with the stationary GALE now forecast and possibly push West to North of the Islands in about 10 Days. 00Z EURO putting a 1008 MB Low NNE of PR. If you have been following us on our Social feeds you know we have been posting about this last several days as a POSSIBLE Sub-Trop/Tropical Storm AR-LEEN. Again Weight and Sea.
UPDATE 11AM EST
JANUARY 5th 2016
Entering Real Time phase of this next event. POSSIBLE Major Swell Event setting up on the Atlantic Side with a legitimate shot at the Eddie coming up in the Pacific.
Please note that it takes time to set up for a video forecast update and gather our thoughts. Please excuse any geographical areas as we do not edit out any mistakes. Sometimes we leave things out by accident only to be discovered after we cut the video.
Video best watched in full screen.
Stay tuned for the NOAA swell forecast update for the Atlantic side. Fresh maps being genereated and we will start a NEW post on that.