A VIDEO UPDATE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE BOTTOM OF THE POST
TUESDAY OCT 18TH 2016
UPDATE EFFECTIVE 645 AM EST
National Hurricane Center now on the board in the 72HR surface forecast with weak low pressure 1008MB NE of the Bahamas. Forecast to retrograde back towards the coast as a possible tropical or sub tropical system (OTTO ?) lifting towards the OBX. Although it appears the system will stay off the coast strong winds high seas look to develop and lead to another battering of the coast. Large Swells from Hurricane NIH-KOHL are now starting to propagate through SW Atlantic waters which could compound the issue. National Hurricane Center 40% chance of development next 5 days.
This system will likely become 99L INVEST next couple of days. The previous 99L invest of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season grew up starting as TD #9 and eventually acquiring the name HER-MEEN. Models a week ago were suggesting low pressure (which is there this morning) lifting out of the Southern Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico as a possible hurricane. Now we are in the Real-Time phase.
No HER-MEEN 2.0 at least not what we see at the moment. HOWEVER you can clearly see the pattern in which the models were picking up on indicated by the red arrows. The trend was through the YUKE Channel up to West Florida Coast. Notice the red arrows and the appearance of the 3 circles. There were a couple of back to back runs where the GFS pushed the Low across the YUKE trying for Western GOMEX however climatology does not favor. This is something we will also continue to monitor so stay tuned for updates. Models currently show NO DEVELOPMENT. Large Hurricane NIH-KOHL Swell showing on the South Bermuda Buoy this morning. This after a solid week of fun surf already for Island Nations compliments of MATH-YOO now his sister is coming. Hurricane NIH-KOHL as of the 5AM update still producing seas in excess 30 Feet.
South Bermuda Buoy showing solid swell (Wave Height matches Swell Height) 12 Feet around 14 seconds. Buoy jumped from around 7 Feet yesterday to 13 feet this morning. We will be monitoring for trends next 24 hours or so.
24HR Swell Forecast
FLORIDA SURFERS ENTERED IN SALT LIFE FLORIDA BIG WAVE CHALLENGE
POSSIBLE SURF ALERT SETTING UP.
HOWEVER IF THIS IS A NO NAME SYSTEM WILL BE ALL FOR NOT
Image is for Thursday possible OP Chores coming toward the weekend. Not alot of confidence at the moment however current forecast favoring as what could be OTTO ? lifts North towards the OBX.
Will cut a Youtube video update today. So check this post later today for the update. Need to see the visible satellite loops this morning.
TUES OCT 18th 2016
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