Statistical Peak 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season



Today marks the statistical peak of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. The season runs officially June 1st through November 30th, although tropical cyclones in the Atlantic can and have developed in every month of the calendar year. 2016 was no exception. The season started with Hurricane ALEX back in January 2016. ALEX was the first January storm dating back to 1978 and is the 4th known storm for the month of January on record and only the second known hurricane.

So far season to date the Atlantic has had (9 Cyclones) 4 Storms 4 Hurricanes 1 MAJOR GASTON and a TD (#8) HER-MEEN was the last named system with EE-AN on deck now at 90% chance next 5 days. More on that below.

Where do we go from here ? Early in the season May-June we always watch for the season to start with homegrown development. That is storms that develop close in to the U.S. Coast. Prime example was yesterdays re-emergence of 92L INVEST over the Florida Straights. As the season progresses (July-Aug-Sept) into todays statistical peak, our eyes look all the way to Afrika for potential tropical cyclone development. This is known as the Cape Verde season. Although we will continue to monitor for tropical development coming off Afrika next several weeks, the Cape Verde season starts its trend to close down for the year, and we go back to as it was in the beginning with more attention given to homegrown development. Homegrown development gives you less time to prepare. As far as seasonal change, Fall is in the air. We are seeing early indications the switch is on. The summer melt season is coming to an end in the Arctic as snowfall returns along with the return of North Atlantic Storms crossing under the Tip of Greenland. In winter these storms often times turn into Hurricane Force Lows producing large ocean swells with long period intervals.

Latest 48 hour Surface Forecast out of NOAA OPC 970MB Storm NW of the UK another 980MB developing Storm moving to SW of the Tip of Greenland. This one is going to put a charge of Northerly groundswell in the water that may become an opposing force to swell produced from what should become Tropical Storm EE-AN in a few days.2016-09-10_044012Latest 96HR showing POSSIBLE EE-AN pulling up out of the MDR (Main Development Region) halfway between Bermuda and PR. Image is for Tuesday. As advertised in our last update seas increasing 10-15 Feet in ESE swell.2016-09-10_044750Latest wind forecast out of the GFS for Wednesday with EE-AN SE of Bermuda.2016-09-10_045747Latest Swell Forecast next 96. Far right of image is Northerly Swell coming from NATLC Storm mentioned above that may disrupt SOME swell production coming from EE-AN.
ESE Swell 10-12 seconds filling in through the Mid-Atlantic with SE states on deck.2016-09-10_050612Latest wind wave forecast National Hurricane Center next 72. Image is Monday into Tuesday.2016-09-10_051423The forecast has some flies in the ointment. This is 93L INVEST 10 % chance of development.
Models take 93L into Central Florida next several days as weak low pressure. Image is the 00Z EURO for Tuesday. EE-AN NE of the Virgins. 93L INVEST along East Central Fla Coast. 1012 off the Tip of the Yuke is what is currently 92L INVEST, 20% chance of development as it drifts towards the WNW eventually getting sucked up into approaching front.2016-09-10_053324This was yesterdays image of 92L INVEST when it appeared that a tropical depression was forming in the Florida Straights. Winds recorded 30-35Kts in thunderstorm activity. For those who didn’t see our video update 92L moved off AFRIKA last week and was masked by the Saharan Air Layer as it made its way across the Atlantic. In our video we pointed out that even though It was masked that once past the 60 long line they can get a shot at development. 92L struggled under the layer and was un-tagged then re-tagged yesterday. Another sign along with HER-MEEN we are moving back into a period of where we watch for homegrown development. Again Homegrown gives you less time to prepare so stay tuned to for the latest or follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time Updates.2016-09-09_132449Case in point, last nights run of the  00Z GFS. Although the GFS has a similar solution to the EURO above over the next several days, that is to move 93L up into Florida and 92L off to the WNW in the GOMEX, its around next weekend where the EURO and GFS split. Image below is for next Friday showing BIG NE blow coming. EE-AN ESE of Bermuda with 1026MB High trying to stack. Look on either side of North Florida. Rule of thumb. Always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for an area of Low Pressure to develop. If the GFS was to verify Nor’Easter conditions would be expected. Typical Fall.2016-09-10_054256EURO same time frame with EE-AN absorbed into developing NATLC Storm with weaker High Pressure gradient. Both show another wave trying to develop out in the Central Atlantic but EURO with no Nor’Easter2016-09-10_060731Heres the floater loop on 94L likely EE-AN and is starting to get its act together this morning.

Thats it for now. We likely will do a video update this afternoon as we begin to enter the Real-Time phase of this next swell event. Looks like a Run DMC forecast coming up getting Tricky with possible heavy rains coming as 93L moves up towards the Florida Coast. Image is for Tuesday.2016-09-10_061424
Stay tuned as witnessed with 92L INVEST, forecast subject to change in a moments notice.

Sorry for the delay on the video update. When models start throwing wrenches we want to make sure we are giving you the latest most accurate info.

Stay Tuned for the next update. Video Best watched in Full Screen

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