WOW !!! From HERMINE to HER-MEEN to HER-MEAN to HER-MANG what a long lived event and a final outcome. Prayers to all affected by this system. MANY in Tallahassee and surrounding areas are still without power as of this post. If you followed our forecast on this system from the beginning you have now witnessed how land interaction with the Island of Hispaniola can disrupt the flow of tropical systems. The Island is known as a storm killer. Hurricanes have moved over the Island before and have been shredded apart. Then, it was forever and a day before the system got passed Cuba and into the Gulf. The other effect of land interaction is it creates drag, and can at times slow the forward speed of a advancing tropical system and was likely a contributor to the long duration event leading up to eventual landfall.
In the end Gulf Surfers scored. HER-MEEN broke the near 11 year drought on U.S. land falling hurricanes (MAJOR Hurricane Drought still on going) NE and Mid-Atlantic surfers scored in a BIG way and swell all the way down into Florida, all the way to PR and the VI as the system ended up moving a few hundred miles further East than forecast. This openned up more NE Fetch leading to that famous old saying, Location, Location, Location. Still some swell in the water but for the most part HER-MEEN is in the books. Thank You HER-MEEN.
For our non social media followers. We apologize for the non website updates as of late. We have been conducting water quality checks and forecast verification last several days at our local beaches.
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Up next in the forecast, return to ESE Trade with POSSIBLE EE-AN on deck. National Hurricane Center 8pm update knocks 10% off and is now at 60% chance next 5 days. For those from the NON surfing community. This system at this time ( if develops ) will likely become a Fish Storm however could come up under Bermuda. No threat to land at this time. As surfers we do not need a named tropical system to generate swell. Just need the right High Low setup.
Heres the latest IR. Has a decent footprint and looks to start coming out the hole next 48 hours or so. Should be tagged 93L INVEST tomorrow.Latest look at SAL. SAL at some of the lowest levels of the season which happens to coincide with statistical peak of season September 10th. Main non development factors currently dry air and high shear.
Latest NOAA 96HR Surface with POSSIBLE EE-AN moving up out of the MDR to NE of PR Sunday into Monday.Latest wind forecast GFS for Monday with moderate to strong NE winds aimed at the Islands with ESE groundswell developing. Nothing huge. Max seas forecast 10-15 FEET ATM
12Z GFS for Monday so this is inside of 5 days.If the GFS verifies this will put some ESE groundswell in the water. However GFS quickly lifts the system North over the next several days and would be a negative on swell production. However 12Z EURO shows a weaker system but moving into the Bahamas. Again, Location, Location, Location. Image is for Wednesday inside of 7 days.Latest Swell forecast out of NOAA OPC showing some SE Swell developing heading for NE States and is the beginning of this next swell event.Stay tuned as we will likely be stepping up our updates on our social feeds this weekend.
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