UPDATE POSTED BELOW
This update effective around 1PM. In the world of forever changing forecast 99L INVEST starting to become a problem. Start you off with a long range wind forecast. Mind you we are doing our best not to post images outside of 7 days where model confidence DECREASES. Sometimes you cant help it though. Image is for next Monday a week out and is not good. Well…for some yes, others no. At least the Indian River may get a clean up set and may be the best hope of trying to restore livable water for marine life. The worst would be more fresh rain water dumping on the Okeechobee. This will not be a good boating day needless to say day for surfing for anyone thinking of traveling to surf. Gotta wait for the cleanup here as well. Models continue to indicate along with visual satellite imagery the likely hood of a moderate to strong tropical feature moving into the Bahamas then North towards Florida over the next 5-7 days is increasing. In the image 99 located just off SOFLO with GASTON well SE of Bermuda. We need to wait to see what the afternoon model runs do before we feel confidant enough to do a tube video but didn’t want to leave you hanging. This should put us inside of 7 days vs Real-Time Event. If image below was to verify, thats seas likely EXCESS 30-35 Feet, ESE Swell Hurricane GASTON, An UN-believable NE Fetch sweeping down from Nova Scotia down into North Florida with a GRINDER trying to setup off the South Florida Coast. AT THE MOMENT tops Low end tropical storm. Thats based off last nights run of the EURO and the model put a little more emphasis on spin. Most it has verses any previos run in dealling with 99L invest. Weight and Sea.
For now lets take a look at the now cast. For those unaware the East Canaveral Buoy has gone adrift. This means in addition to loosing Canaveral there is No East Hatteras, No Onslow Bay, and No Edisto. Kinda hard to track swell we you can see it on the buoys. St Martins Buoy as of report time reporting winds less than 10Kts 5 Feet East swell 10-12 seconds with first round of tropical swell in bound to South Bermuda Buoy. Image is current winds as of this post.Latest 96HR wind wave forecast out of NOAA OPC showing seas associated with Likely 3rd Hurricane 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season GASTON. Seas increasing 8 Meters, Excess 25 FEET next 96 in long period SE-ESE groundswell developing. 3 Meters, Excess 10 FEET coming out of the Bahamas towards the Florida Coast. This is for days. Go back to the top and go look at 7 days out. Will help you understand the Red Arrows in this one. If the storm (if develops) moves off towards the NE and can get away from the coast while intensifying, the NE wrap from already established NE fetch North of the OBX would be insane. Lots of time to watch.
Latest NOAA 24HR Swell Forecast showing some 12-13 second swell periods Combination of the 3 features. You can see developing Northerly wind swell off the Mid-Atlantic and NE swell from previous North Atlantic Low cutting into the backside of ESE Swell but at least theres waves on the way as Northerly flow now kicking in on the Nantucket Buoy, NW 15-20KTS, Long Island, NW 20-25Kts all the way down into Diamond Shoals OBX currently reporting North winds 15-20KTS.
Latest NOAA Swell forecast showing 15-18 second SSE-ESE swell developing. This map although does not look all that impressive its fixing to change colors over the next couple of runs.
You can see 99 looks sparky and the wild card it spin up quicker than anticipated and then could be a whole different ball game once in the Bahamas. Definitely a system all residents central Bahamas through Florida should closely monitor stay tuned for the update.
UPDATE 9:30 PM EST MONDAY AUGUST 22nd
Here’s an update to this post. As advertised above, the swell forecast map is changing color. Latest 96HR NOAA Swell forecast showing 15-18 second ESE Groundswell developing out of what has now become TD#7. TD 7 On its way to Tropical Storm GASTON then on to the 3rd Hurricane of the 2016 Season. GASTON Possibly become seasons first MAJOR Hurricane later on down the road. As before no threat to land at this time as GASTON looks to remain out to sea.
Latest NOAA 96HR Wind Wave Forecast as called in the earlier update seas increasing 30-35 FEET over the next 4-5 days with 35-40+ likely at peak intensity. Image is in meters. Now take note. If you look at the image used in this mornings update gone is the 10-12 FEET coming out of the Bahamas. This is because NOAA is currently following the GFS which has completely backed off any development of 99L INVEST over the last two runs.Now I know we said up thread we were going to try and stay in a 7 day window but I’m trying to find the right image with the best winds. This is 9 days. This would give time for 99L to either develop or get out of the way. At this point non development would be better in the Bahamas. In this image Florida Got Da Oranges Jersey Gets Da Juice. One run long ways out.What is certain at the moment is soon to be GASTON. Best looking feature season to date with two more waves getting ready to exit the Afrikan Coast. Should see 91L INVEST in about 4-5 Days. If we don’t see HERMINE in the Bahamas or Florida Coast will see him right here in about 7 days.Going back to the very first image up the post and the NE Blow. GFS is still on with that same setup. The lightest or offshore winds I could find would be in the image posted above for Wednesday. Obviously that far out things could change especially if 99L INVEST does develop. To see what 99L looks like this evening scroll back up to the animated loops. Rule of thumb always verify date and time stamp to ensure latest images. If unsure refresh the page. We will be back tomorrow with another update.
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