Morning everyone sorry for the delay. After showing a massive hurricane on either side of the Florida Coast the last several days from what is currently 99L INVEST, (I’m sure everyone has seen the images by now) some shifts out in the Atlantic changed all that yesterday and the reason we decided to delay an update for 24 hours. The GFS has backed away from this scenario with 99L but 99 may play a role further down the road in about 10 days East of the Florida Coast. The previous call for NE Blow working its way down the Eastern Seaboard still on. All zones showing NE Winds developing next 72 15-20KTS seas increasing 10-12 Feet East of the OBX next 96. Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates.
Start you off with FIONA, naked and afraid. “Naked”, “No Clothes” and “Exposed” are all meteorological slang for tropical systems as they degenerate to non or Ex status. “Naked” means the center of rotation is clearly visible because of the loss of convection. “Afraid” because sometimes afterwards they can go and hide. Its the sometimes when they come out of hiding is when you can go back to having issues. This is the first visible of the day, FIONA, “Naked and Afraid.”
If you look closely (left hand portion of the image) you can see “Dark Shadows” from the sun rising to the East, hitting the cloud tops casting linear lines of shadows to the West. Keeping in theme, who remembers the popular TV show called Dark Shadows ? We will come back to FIONA later down in the post. As of right now, as advertised, a non factor as a swell producer for the U.S. Coast unless some regeneration occurs. St Martins Buoy as of 8:30 AM only showing 3 foot of swell height out of the NNE, South Bermuda only showing 3 foot as well. So not much out of this system, For all who HEAR Tropical Storm and immediately associate it with surf coming, It don’t work that way.
Why we watch you follow @DaBuhNext up 99L INVEST. National Hurricane Center is DECREASING chances of development. Thats FIONA in the upper portion of the image. If you are a Real-Time tracker and you watch longer loops, the area on the 15 line was/is the main center of rotation for 99L. GFS along with most all other models had this rotation further South below the 15 line. It appeared yesterday that this spun out of the broad area of low pressure and took a more WNW track towards 15 instead of dropping below. Thats why 12Z GFS dropped the massive hurricane on either side of Florida in our opinion. As a Tropical Wave, basically, you have the main wave axis South of 15 with the Northern Extension of the wave on the 15 line. As of right now it appears the Islands will only experience just some squally weather similar to the vigorous tropical wave, “97L” the Islands experienced a few weeks ago. Nothing alarming mind you this could change. Main impacts expected Wednesday through Thursday. 20-25Kt winds higher gust in any T-Storms that may develop. This too could play in a larger roll once in the Bahamas. More on that below.Next up 90L INVEST off the Afrikan Coast. This is the Real Deal Holyfield. 90L likely to become the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Seasons 3rd Hurricane, possibly a MAJOR. National Hurricane Center increasing the odds of development as of the 8AM currently 90% chance next 5 days. Our current call is for Tropical Storm GASTON in 72, Hurricane GASTON next 96 (Thursday) intensifying to a MAJOR Hurricane however remaining OTS. At this time no threat to land but again this could change down the road. It will be GASTON that will produce seas in excess of 30 FEET getting what should be a solid swell going giving chance at the first pics for this years Salt Life Food Shack “Big Wave Challenge”. One surfer One Photographer One Picture biggest wave ridden. See www.saltlifefoodshack.com for details follow DaBuh.com for the forecast.So heres last nights run of the EURO. Mind you the EURO has been a stand alone model from the beginning on 99L INVEST and the GFS has now bowed before the EURO and both models in the overnight come into fair agreement over the next 10 days. Image is for next Sunday. Mind you NE Blow next 4-5 days to get some wind swell action going. Should get down all the way into SOFLO.
What you see East of Florida is comprised of, remnant FIONA, remnant 99L INVEST and a piece of frontal Low energy from the front. 1014 Ex-FIONA, below that remnant 99L Southern Bahamas and Frontal Low South Florida Coast.
This is the EURO at day 10. Essentially what the model suggest is that GASTON will quickly pull up North leaving behind the trop energy off the Florida Coast. Look over at AFRIKA 91L ? Now back over towards Florida. Notice how I stacked that down into the Southern Caribbean. Used this image 4 days ago as a past track of a hurricane and the reasonning for using it as a possible coastal runner coming. Sometimes models show you whats coming way to soon. Kinda like expecting swell to show up one day but actually shows up two days later than expected. Compare both images.Big Picture. All that you see East of the Islands is coming WNW the front is there. Rule of thumb during Tropical Season always watch tail ends of fronts or along stalled or dying fronts for an area of Low Pressure to develop.GFS at 10 Days
EURO at 10 DaysThis is what we call “Models Coming into Agreement” As for exact outcome, Weight and Sea.
Subscribers are reminded nothing in weather absolute until it happens in Real-Time.
Latest out of NOAA OPC 96HR wind wave forecast. We will be stepping up our updates this week. Mind you updates will likely come in the evening hours as during the day we will be conducting water quality checks and in the field forecast verification. As advertised period of elevated seas coming for Atlantic waters. Seas increasing 10-12 Feet in NE wind swell East of the OBX. Seas 10-12 Feet associated Post Tropical Fiona and LOOK OUT BELOW Seas increasing 12-15 FEET ESE swell developing from soon to be GASTON with Max Seas likely Excess 30 Feet. Image in meters.Latest 96HR NOAA Swell forecast. Keep in mind that although the image shows 12-13 second ESE Swell along the Eastern Sea Board, 1 its small 2 it aint for everybody as NE blow drowns it. Trace NE wind swell in the image East of OBX down into Florida. But here it comes East of 50
Will do a video update this afternoon after the PM Models come out for an update on NE Blow coming and updated tropical outlook. Stay Tuned.
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Wurd of DaBuh