99L INVEST 90L ? FIONA and the Salt Life Big Wave Challenge


So some interesting developments with this afternoons model runs. I know everyone is getting excited about upcoming surf. The 2016 Salt Life Big Wave Challenge is on. The upcoming forecast looks to provide a chance to get the first pics for the 2016 Contest. Click the image below for terms and conditions and entry form and remember, Get Shacked at the Shack….Salt Life Food Shack.
Jacksonville Beach and St Augustine.
2016-08-19_155514

Gonna start you off with the latest NOAA OPC 96HR Surface Forecast. High pressure forecast to move into the Mid-Atlantic region behind the front around Sunday into Monday this will get some NNE Flow going all the way down into Florida as the week progresses with 1 little 2 little 3 little Indians associated with Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA. Image is for Tuesday.2016-08-19_152500NOAA OPC 96HR Swell Forecast. You can see FIONA did create some small ESE 10-12 second swell periods but as we discussed in previous updates the Northerly would likely drown it out. FIONA was/is a small storm with limited area of winds 35-40KTS with no real fetch to speak of. NEW NNE wind swell developing along the Eastern Seaboard. If you look behind the FIONA swell you can see swell direction turns back NE.2016-08-19_153754Latest winds forecast for Tuesday showing NNE winds 10-15Kts right now looks like max seas 5-8 feet of the Mid-Atlantic.2016-08-19_154107Wednesday into Thursday is where things look to get interesting. Image is for Thursday with what is currently 99L INVEST moving WNW under PR with what should be 90L INVEST by tomorrow trailing behind. Notice light NE winds from OBX into Florida. If the model verifies on Thursday front runners from what should be Tropical Storm GASTON and the INVEST or Possible TD trailing behind should start arriving along the U.S. Coast with NE states getting a taste of FIONA.2016-08-19_154230I say if the model verifies. The one hold out is the famed EURO model which. Hard once again shows nothing coming from 99L. Hard to believe when all other models are fairly adamant that a storm is coming. PLEASE TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. It is important to remember not to focus on one single model run or a single image but to recognize the pattern and the possibilities. As noted in our previous updates and in our latest video the Island of Hispaniola is none as a storm killer. Looking at the image above the center of 99/GASTON looks to go right over the top of it where the high mountanios terrain can destroy or disrupt the circulation center. Image is the 12Z GFS for 10 days. Again one run of many more to come. The GFS is not the only model that has shifted West today and is not the only one showing a Hurricane coming.2016-08-19_130635We are gonna leave it right here for now do to uncertainties past Thursday mentioned above. Thursday puts us within a 7 day window where confidence in models increases.
Visible 99L INVEST

IR RAINBOW you can see most of convection is gone at the time of this update 4:40 PM EST on Friday. This is because of the system bumping into an area of moderate shear.

Stay tuned and check back for additional updates. Will post them here later tonight if necessary along with possibly another youtube video. Stay Tuned.

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