VIDEO UPDATE POSTED BELOW EFFECTIVE THURSDAY AUGUST 18th 2016
Here we go guys. Real-Time Phase of Tropical Storm developing and an increase in tropical activity coming over the next couple of weeks as we head into September. If you’ve been following along on our social feeds, you know that a couple of weeks ago we saw signs of the reemergence of the Afrikan Wave train coming and an increase in tropical activity. Well, here it is. 98L INVEST expected to become Tropical Storm FIONA at the 11 AM Update in about an hour. This post effective around 10 AM.
Real-Time Loop Always verify date and time stamp located in the black bar.
There are some uncertainties with the eventual track an outcome of this system. GFS and EURO split overnight. GFS keeps it a fish storm and non swell producer and EURO sends her NE of PR but dissipates back to TD. This would be the better solution for surf along the East coast. I hate to be a downer, but right now the negatives out weigh the positives as far as surf. First, that Massive Low that was over Hudson Bay that re-intensified and stormed out near Greenland a few days ago has created a far reaching Northerly Swell component. Latest NOAA 24hr swell forecast. Any ESE created from FIONA will have a tough time going against the grain. Mind you Northerly swell will continue to push South into the 48 hour mark. The positive at the moment is notice the arrow direction change right at the 30 line but dont confuse it with the periods. Although the arrows are pointing out of the SSE the Northerly Swell looks to drown out the SSE UNLESS……. EURO is right and system gets NE of PR. Weight and Sea.The better chance for swell along the U.S. Eastcoast looks to come from what should be 99L INVEST moving off the Afrikan Coast next 24 hours or so. Again the models flip on this as well. GFS takes a West-NW track all the way across and EURO keeps it OTS (Out to Sea) and a Fish Storm.Needless to say its why we have been hesitant in doing a website update. Either way we are entering an active phase in the Atlantic as we head towards the climatological peak of Hurricane Season, September 10th. Take note of this pattern. This is this mornings imagery. Although nothing will develop now, we will likely see this same pattern again 1st week in September. This type of pattern can suckup Low pressure out of the Caribbean up and over over Cuba and into the Bahamas as developing tropical system.I wont name the storm or the year or I’ll get accused of Hype but this is what it looks like in track. This pattern repeats itself through the back-end of the season.More on this coming up gonna be a long 10 days coming and uncertainties remain. Right now we are leaning towards the EURO with a more Western track which would ultimately open up some ESE swell once North of PR and the combination of what looks to be GASTON trailing. Image is for next Tuesday and now you can see why there are better opportunities with the second system and why we say tropical waves are just like as in surfing. A true surfer never takes the first wave in the set unless its a cleanup.The sets are starting to stack up.We will be stepping up forecast updates here on the site. Youtube video coming. Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates. Tell All U Frens Mo Frens Mo Betta. Stay Tuned.
The slight convective outburst NE of PR as of 10AM is associated with a Westward moving tropical wave. This is helping to enhance Easterly flow over the top of St Martins Buoy currently East winds 15-20Kts into the South Bermuda Buoy as it moves West. This should aid in the SMALL Easterly bump coming. Now Picture FIONA there in a few days and cross your fingers.
Here was this mornings first visible and why in our opinion FIONA to take a more Westward track.
VIDEO UPDATE EFFECTIVE 2:00 PM AUGUST 18TH 2016
AS OF THIS UPDATE AREA OFF AFRIKA NOW TAGGED 99L INVEST