Another ESE Bump


Heres the latest update. Hope everyone enjoyed this last little Mini Backdoor ESE trade here comes the next one. Change from last forecast update models have trended a bit weaker with this next one coming. Still hope for a bump in size but at least it won’t be flat. Start you off with the 72HR Swell forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing 8-10 second plus, ENE Swell moving in, NE of PR rotating to ESE West of PR into Bahamas and on into Florida in shorter period wind swell.2016-08-12_122031Latest wind wave forecast showing 5-6 feet between Lat 20-30. Time distance travel equals a couple of days of migration into the coast. Image is for Sunday2016-08-12_122219Then┬áMonday into Tuesday we will be watching for a pinch in the gradient NE of PR that may add a little charge to the water with a brief uptick in winds 20-25Kts. So stay tuned in for that as we will be monitoring the St Martins buoy for any positive trend.2016-08-12_124349Where is the Hurricane Season ? It’s coming2016-08-12_125544Right now the Northern Hemi is amplified bringing successive fronts into the Mid-Atlantic region. After this phase passes over the next 7-10 days we should see a shift in the pattern opening the door for an increase in tropical activity. Case in point is this MASSIVE Low that was over Hudson Bay. This low will move to the other side of the Tip of Greenland.2016-08-12_124003Although only a GALE and will not send anyswell to the SW Atlantic this is the second large Low in the NATLC in the last week or so. Low showing up well in the 96HR swell forecast.2016-08-12_122457Models are hinting at 2 to 3 more coming over the forecast period. Image is the 12Z GFS for next Saturday. The hope is that an area of Low Pressure slips out into the Atlantic along a front and deepen as it departs putting a stronger NE pulse in the water than what we saw with the storm that developed here last week. For those who follow our forecast closely you know the ones we are talking about. That was all that NE Swell showing up on the Buoys a few days ago. Still along ways out but we are always searching for swell sources. In this run model lifts to West of the Tip of Greenland and combines with another area of Low pressure.2016-08-12_130420Then a pattern shift setting up and the GFS opening the door on Hurricane Season. Image is for August 25th thats 13 days away. Obviously this is one run of many with many more to come but we are already seeing the signs. Weight and Sea.2016-08-12_131044Stay tuned over the weekend as we track this little ESE bump coming. Hopefully theres a little surprise and we get some tightening of the gradient Monday into Tuesday from the Tropical Wave thats just leaving Afrika.2016-08-12_110511
Stay Tuned for the next update.

Share this: