Decided to do a complete buoy update this morning. For those who may be new followers and are new to our style of forecast we forecast a little different here at DaBuh.com. We have a progression to our forecast. That is, to identify potential swell sources by analyzing the most recent model runs and trends. Then, verify verify in the satellite imagery and overall synoptic pattern knowing which patterns seasonal or not has the most potential to produce surf. Then once the forecast either verifies or the event begins to unfold we will then go into a buoy watch, to track the swell trough its natural progression. We hate it when we spend the time to do detailed analysis post up our thoughts here on our site, only to have people ask on social media, when is the swell coming 🙂 Thats for the other forecast sites. We track in Real-Time.
The NE Swell from the NATLC Storm that developed 4 days ago is now pushing up on St Martins and PR Buoys. Image from August 4th. NATLC GALE SSE of the Tip of Greenland with developing storm moving ENE located SE of Newfoundland. As the storm moved off the NNE Swell window opened up allowing swell from GALE near Greenland to wrap down into storm. This is common pattern for NATLC Winter Swell season. The only difference instead of “Storm” status, these systems in winter develop into “Hurricane Force Lows. Regardless this storm produced Max Seas in excess 30 Feet.St Martins Buoy showing solid NNE Swell 5 Feet @ 12 Seconds
PR Buoy 4 FEET out of the NE @ 11 Seconds. This will likely increase some today.
So could be a rare summertime treat for Island followers. Let us know if you live in the Islands.
Next Buoy up South Bermuda. Heres where we are looking for wave energy for the MINI ESE Backdoor detailed in yeterdays update. NNE also on this buoy however notice the grouping of Easterly swell at around 4-5 FEET thats headed towards the U.S. East Coast. Hopefully the NE doesn’t drown it out.
Next up NE Bahamas. Buoy also picking up on Northerly swell Will be watching this one today for rotation to ESE. The good news is the 10 second periods.
Forecaster note: We normally don’t pay any attention to East Bahama Buoy. Swell has to be a big to make it through the Islands to give South Florida any shot.
Next up East Canaveral. Periods are there size is not. At least not yet. Buoy showing 1 foot of swell height @ 10-11 Seconds. Cross your fingers height transitions from the 4-5 FEET on South Bermuda above onto the East Canaveral later today. Buoy to watch.
Quick update on the area we have been monitoring North of Hispaniola now near the Bahamas. Overnight model runs have dropped the feature and basically has it as an open trough. However this system has been interacting with an Upper Level Low feature last several days. SOMETIMES, given the right circumstances ULL’s can sometimes spin down to the surface. This feature is going to be around a few more days as the front persist. Weight and Sea. First visible of the Day around 7:00 AM.
Stay tuned to our social feeds for updates.
Quick Update on Gulf Low. Low continues to retrograde back towards the West. Some deep convective activity is starting to blow up South of P-Cola.
Daulphin Island Buoy West Winds 15-20KTS Seas around 4-5 FEET.
P-Cola Buoy had WSW Winds 15-20Kts and Gusty but showing NW now could be temporary or sign Low is moving in.
Latest wind wave forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing seas increasing 6-8 Feet next 36-48 Hours. Stay tuned for updates.
Finally heres the beginning phase of the next ESE trade swell coming moving off Afrika this morning in developing GALE. See yesterdays post for more info.