Monitoring Two Areas and Another ESE Trade Swell


We continue to monitor two areas of disturbed weather. One over in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and the other North of Hispaniola this morning. Sometimes its difficult in putting a forecast package together when there are alot of players on the board. We don’t want to provide you with info that is inaccurate. With that said it looks like the picture is becoming a bit clearer the skies not so much. Although many need the rain, copious amounts is not what is needed.

Start you off with this Gulf System. This system will primarily be a rain maker. It has brought a little bit of surf to NW Florida and should bring some localized windswell from the Pan Handle next couple of days. This system is forecast to begin to retrograde back towards the West overnight and once West of the Big Bend area should begin to increase onshore flow into the Pan Handle. Generally SW winds 15-20Kts. Right now not seeing anything over 5 feet. This could change with any deviation of Low position.2016-08-07_115409Latest 72HR Swell forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing ESE windswell into Texas with SW short period wind swell into Pan Handle beaches. Models show no tropical development.2016-08-07_120156The next area is a tad more interesting currently North of Hispaniola but only a tad. Models really not excited and neither are we at this point however this could change over the next 48hrs or so. This feature is the Northern Extension of the tropical wave that moved off the Afrikan Coast last week behind what was 96L INVEST. Models show no real development with the exception of the Canadian. Forecast is to move Northwards and split the diffrence between Florida and Bermuda. UNLESS THIS DEVELOPS will not be a strong enough swell source. Closest buoy currently East Bahamas Buoy. As of report time, noonish on Sunday winds are NE 20-25KTS so there is some hope here.2016-08-07_120731Now your gunna have to stick with me here. Latest NOAA 24hr Swell forecast. The NE swell we were discussing several days ago from NATLC Storm got drowned out by strong SW flow that developed off the coast along with residual ESE trade, although OBX and standout spots along the Mid-Atlantic did get a bump from the storm. There still is some residual NE Swell in the water today. South Hatteras Buoy currently 2 Feet 10-11 seconds out of the ENE. Kicker would be if Low North of Hispan moves North sits down on top of it and spins. HIGHLY unlikely at the moment but there’s a reason why they call storms that develop like this Homegrown. These little spins, like the one in the Gulf, or the one North of Hispan, given a long enough time period in a location, can sometimes take on a life of their own. Bulk of NE Swell from NATLC Storm a few days ago well NE and East of PR.
Take note of of the ESE 10 second periods aiming back at Florida.2016-08-07_112531Heres the 48HR swell forecast.  ESE opens up a bit more into the OBX.
NO REAL SIZE it’s the exercise I’m trying to show you however standout locations could see a fun bump in summertime long board wave in the swell window Tuesday through Thursday.2016-08-07_112620Here’s the 96. This is the SMALL backdoor ESE trade we advertised on our social media platforms this morning. Now here comes the beef. Look over to Portugal NW Afrika. Just as little backdoor ESE pushes into the U.S. East Coast resurgence coming from the East Atlantic.2016-08-07_112659GALE Developing next 96. This will also increase some drafting across AFRIKA that will eventually lead to the reemergence of Afrikan Wave train going into the last week of August. Image is in meters.
Also take note that event setting up North of Lat 30 aimed at open ocean. This will get some water moving this way.2016-08-07_112933
Image is wind forecast for Wednesday2016-08-07_124709Then on Friday could start to get interesting as pressure gradient may begin to tighten backside of PR in ESE winds putting a little more charge in the water.2016-08-07_125803Then by Monday Bermuda High setting up bringing what was in the East Atlantic to the West.2016-08-07_130709This part of the forecast currently High confidence. Whats in the Gulf and North of Hispan low at the moment. Stay tuned we will cut a video after 12Z EURO comes out in a few hours. Will post it here.

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