NE Swell Update N-GULF Low N-EXT Tropical Wave Bahamas


Possible super soaker setting up over SE states. Lots of players on the board. A weak area of low pressure, or a slow moving tropical depression can cause as much devastating effects as a tropical storm or fast moving hurricane. In some cases worse. The worse is when it rains for days first, loosing tree roots and saturating the ground. Then if the system strengthens increasing winds is when tree damage and lots of power outages can occur. With that said, NHC now at 20% chance of development next 5 days over the Northern Gulf of Mexico.2016-08-05_100423Latest 96HR Surface out of NOAA OPC setting up a possible localized wind swell event Pan Handle beaches. Swell from Hurricane EARL just passing Mid-Gulf Buoy currently 4 to 5 FEET SE Swell 10 seconds. Pan Handle peeps stay tuned on surf forecast. For those who follow us on our social feeds CLASSIC example of Rule of Thumb we posted several days ago. ALWAYS watch tail ends of front or along stalled or dying fronts for an area of low pressure to develop. 2016-08-05_100712The next area we are watching for interactions is left over energy from EARL and two inbound tropical waves through the Eastern Caribbean. The first one with DNA from Ex-96L. It is the second one we are looking at for the possibility of the Northern Extension lifting up over Hispaniola in the wake of the Upper Level Low currently in the Bahamas around Monday. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY !!!! The area in the Gulf of Hondura appears to be headed across the YUKE towards the Western GOMEX into Mexico. Outside chance to see homegrown here as well which would likely send heavy rains into Texas.2016-08-05_103033We will cut a video this afternoon after we get a good shot at the visible imagery and the most recent EURO so stay tuned in for that. Not trusting of other models at the moment. Sometimes when there are too many players on the board it creates model confusion. However this from Hurricane tracker App.
Remember what we said when the worst is at the beginning of this post. Updates Coming !!!2016-08-05_103929
Heres the Update on this NE Swell and the extended look for the Atlantic Side.
Yesterdays Hi-Res. Area SE of Tip of Greenland is the previous GALE that put some NE groundswell in the water a few days ago. GALE Developing SE of Nova Scotia has now become a Storm.2016-08-05_105126Max Seas in the swell window yesterday near 25 Feet. System forecast excess 30 Feet once in the NE Atlantic.2016-08-05_105538Latest NOAA 48HR Swell forecast. First time in the Atlantic since RARE out of season Hurricane Force Low a few months ago to have a storm system produce seas in excess 30 Feet and 15-18 second swell periods. The good news is the ocean is moving once again. 2016-08-05_105903
ENE Swell now filling in on Nantucket Buoy 4 Feet 9-10 Seconds With East Swell 4 Feet down into the Virginia Beach Buoy. Swell does not look to make it past the OBX for East Coasters as strong SW flow will kill it. There is the outside chance of mixing with ESE into Central Florida but the wild card is if the Northern Extension tropical wave gets into Bahamas which would kill it with Southerly flow.2016-08-05_110430More on the above over the next couple of days. Follow us on our social feeds for Real-Time updates.
Heres a look at last nights run of the EURO and what appears to be yet another solid ESE trade swell setting up. Image is for Wednesday. Area of low pressure moving into the Atlantic SW of the Canary’s putting some 30-35Kt Easterly winds in the water. Notice the location of PR. This fetch setting up is North of the Islands.2016-08-05_111208Thursday 30-40KTS keeping in mind the natural flow from East to West through the Caribbean.2016-08-05_111231Friday High Pressure starting to squeeze a bit .2016-08-05_111257And Saturday Fetch begins to mature well to the NE of PR with the kicker of some ESE coming up from behind. Long ways out but we like it.2016-08-05_111321
Stay tuned for video update later this afternoon. Will post it here.
96HR Swell forecast showing that PR and Islands just might get a decent NE Bump if winds cooperate. Not sure about that 10 second ESE into Florida as forecast unfolds detailed above.
2016-08-05_114004

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