July Now in the Books 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season


July now in the books. The month finished with two INVEST and remained tropical cyclone free for the entire month. 19 of the last 50 years have gone tropical cyclone free (38%) according  Phillip Klotzbach, records archivist and tropical weather expert from the University of Colorado. Looks like July may have missed it by a day with the area we have been tracking since last week, now in the Eastern Caribbean 97L INVEST although not yet a Tropical Storm. Image below around 5 AM and is not a forecast. Please visit the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricane.gov for all OFFICIAL watches and warnings in the event watches and warnings are posted for your area and please heed the advise of your local government and county officials. Image below not a forecast. Depicts general track of where models and the NHC take it.
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We still have questions as the system begins to interact with the island of Hispaniola. There remains some remnant trough and ULL in the Bahamas that the system is still interacting with as well. The island of Hispaniola has a funny way of interacting with tropical systems and is known as a storm killer based on the high mountainous terrain. Have also seen it split a system taking the circ center and jumping coast over to the North side. The most likely track of 97 is off towards the West as models suggest however subscribers are reminded that nothing in weather is absolute until it happens in Real-Time.

Here’s a look at the Big Picture and enough on 97L for the moment. Gale forecast off the Mid-Atlantic now forecast as storm. The question mark bottom right hand side is we have now begun monitoring the remnants of 96L INVEST and the wave that just exited the West Afrikan Coast. We will also have more on that later and will likely cut another video update after we review the visible satellite imagery later this morning.
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For now as a surf forecast our focus now turns to current swell coming and developing storm mentioned above. We have been discussing for almost a week now that the GALE/STORM moving off the Mid-Atlantic could put some NE Swell in the water that should offer some BRIEF, but welcomed relief, for Mid-Atlantic states and portions of NE Coast with surf. Also outside chance swell makes it into NE Florida Waters. Latest NOAA Swell forecast out of the OPC showing some pre-existing NE Swell coming out of the North Atlantic. The hope is the swell energy will combine with NEW Swell energy developed from developing storm.2016-08-01_062918
Seas are forecast to 6 Meters or excess 20 FEET. The double 6’s indicate 20 feet out of the SW and 20′ out of the NNE. Think about that for a moment. We have 97L with the PR Buoy maxing out at 11 Feet with 8 Feet of ESE Swell. Storm system above will produce winds likely of equal strength, possibly higher, twice the size of seas at 20 FEET and longer period swell then the tropical system we are watching.2016-08-01_063053Obviously the negative factor is distance from swell source. Once the system develops we will go into a buoy watch to if we can pin down some size which we remain unsure of at the moment. Then in about 3-4 days we may be getting back down to business coming out of the East Atlantic with the remenants of 96L INVEST and the T-Wave moving off now.2016-08-01_064224Thats it for now. We will be updating this post later as the day progresses and will add a video update so stay tuned to this thread. You can keep this tab open to watch loops. Refresh page to ensure latest imagery always verify date and time stamp located in the black bar for accuracy.

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UPDATE 4:45 EST

97L likely to become EARL. National Hurricane Center Airforce Reserve C-130 Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is currently in route and or beginning their data collection process of the system at the time of this posting. For those tuning in for specific information on this system, we here at DaBuh.com are no longer interested in this system from a surf forecast. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for all watches and warnings. We will continue to update on the system through our social feeds.2016-08-01_165030As advertised above NATLC Storm is still forecast. Here’s the latest update on this NE Swell we have been talking about. Latest 96HR NOAA Swell forecast showing widespread 12-13 Second NE Groundswell coming. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT ON SIZE. If it doesn’t pan out DONT SHOOT THE MESSENGER, Can only show you what eye sea.
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Just like you have to wait for the Lows to move off Afrika before you get an idea of what they may do, It is no different when Lows move off the Mid-Atlc. Its why we watch. It could hit open water and explode or haul ass to the NE leaving nothing in it’s wake. Max Seas forecast now at excess 20 Feet.
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