We are now just inside of 5 Days in closing out July of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. It is an almost certainty the month will end Tropical Cyclone free. The only area that has a shot in the near term looks to be over in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact an area of Low Pressure developed over Louisiana last 24 hours helping to increase some Southerly Fetch with surf increasing over in the Florida Pan Handle Beaches today. Whats over Cuba back towards PR is moving off towards the WNW and is just something to keep an eye on. Models show no tropical development from this at the moment but as we’ve been posting in our social feeds, pattern is known to increase chances of tropical activity. Had that Low over LA been over open water there may have been a chance for something to try and spin up.Here’s this afternoons look over Afrika. This is the closest to an Afrikan Wave train season to date. A few models are hinting at development in about a week or so. Ironically the GFS and EURO are not favoring it at the moment.The problem is lots of dry air in the MDR due to a heavy layer of SAL that moved into the East Atlantic a few days ago. But as you can see a more moist environment is heading this way into the Atlantic from Afrika. As we get into the upcoming surf forecast what you see over PR and NE of PR in the image below is the 1st part of a 2 part series.SAL is running its cycle and is beginning to lessen in association with moist air moving in. Just because theres no clouds doesn’t mean there’s no spin in the atmosphere.
For those who followed our last forecast and our call on repeat performance coming up this the same pattern that gave us our last fun run of waves. This morning we eyeballed a piece of the Northern Ext of a Westward moving Tropical Wave over PR. Similar to last time but this mornings PR buoy obs only indicated some minor gust just above 25Kts. Last time buoy logged some gust to 40.
Either way this combined with some Easterly Trade Wind flow has allowed the swell height to bump a little. As of report time 6:30 EST showing some short period East Swell about 4 feet. Up 2 feet from this morning.
Heres what it looks like this afternoon one of the last visible’s of the day. This is heading WNW towards the GOMEX behind what you saw in the Water Vape over Western Cuba above. This could lead to a minor East Florida Bump Central Florida up Thursday or Friday before main event. Buoy Watch now in effect so stay tuned to our social feeds for Real-Time info.The main event will be on the backside of the Tropical Wave traveling through the Central Atlantic. Latest 72 hour surface forecast out of the National Hurricane Center. As like last time we will be watching for the Northern Extension to break off main wave axis and possibly move into the Bahamas. Seas increasing behind the wave 6-8 Feet heading into the weekend. Time distance travel is about 3-4 days so should start to see swell showing up around the first of the week. Will start to dial the timing in as this week progresses but for right now looks like another solid round of surf coming in ESE trade Swell.Latest wind forecast for Friday. The hump and orange shading NE of the VI is the N-Ext of the wave with a patch of 20-25Kt winds with higher gust.Then on Sunday some stronger ESE fetch working its way into the Bahamas.We are gonna leave it here for now for this forecast update. We need to give the waves moving off Afrika a chance to get over open water to see how much dust gets cleared from the air.
VIDEO UPDATE 5PM EST JULY 27th 2016