EPAC Surpasses Atlantic on Named Systems Update ESE Trade

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Wanna start this update with a few moments on the Eastern Pacific which has now surpassed the Atlantic on named systems with NEWLY formed Tropical Storm ESTELLE. The Atlantic with last storm DANIELLE, was up 4 to 0 on the EPAC to start the season and it looks like FRANK is on deck with NHC showing 20% chance next 5 days. main energy for FRANK still over on the Atlantic Side.2016-07-16_073520Heres a look at CELIA DARBY AND ESTELLE in the 850MB earlier this morning. This pattern will increase the chance of HAWAII possibly affected by DARBY and ESTELLE as a predominant East to West flow develops. Latest GFS has DARBY going over the Islands as a weak Storm or GALE. One run of many with lots of time to watch but I just wanted to bring attention to it for anyone who may have travel plans to the Islands. It is also interesting to note that only 1 member of the 51 member ECMWF Ensemble shows La Nina conditions at peak of the 2016 Atlantic Season. Could lead to a less active Atlantic season and more active EPAC. We will be providing Pacific updates until the threat to the Islands has cleared.2016-07-16_075235Over on the Atlantic side. If you missed yesterdays update go check it out first before you can get the feel of this one. We continue to monitor Northern Extension of Westward moving Tropical Wave this morning just North of the 15 Line. Motion in the image is from right to left and the straight arrow is on the 15 Line.2016-07-16_065645This wave will continue heading West and is likely partial energy for what could become FRANK over in the EPAC next week. This is the current look at SAL and its quite a difference vs the way its been most of July thus far, when the image showed all orange indicating very dry air. These last to T-Waves moving off have helped to knock some of it out or attaching to H20 Particles.2016-07-16_080359And the next two headed that way. As mentioned in yesterdays update it is typical for one wave to move off and moisten the environment giving the second one a chance to breathe. As was the case yesterday it appears the waves are dry to start.2016-07-16_081041Although models continue to show no development, a tropical pattern is beginning to emerge and a clear sign season is progressing. Pattern developing known to increase chance of Homegrown. For those who follow our forecast closely, about a month ago, we made reference to the “Fork in the Road”
Looking at the image, this is indicated by the two arrows starting at PR and splitting the Dominican Republic. Sometimes what happens is, depending on length of wave axis the wave can be split at the “Fork in the Road.” Main wave energy Westward under the Islands into SW Carib then a piece of the Northern Extension moving into the Bahamas or towards the GOMEX. Regardless of whether or not something tries to spin up some pinching of the gradient can occur increasing wind and seas.2016-07-16_092824This is the latest wind forecast for Monday Although not a true Bermuda High just yet models trending that way as they lean towards shifting High back towards the West. Easterly wind flow North of PR is good. East winds 10-15Kts patches of 20 seas increasing 5-8 Feet in Easterly Trade.2016-07-16_061026 By Wednesday GFS inches a little closer SW towards Bermuda with the High. With Increasing ESE winds North of PR into the Bahamas. Thats East winds 20-25Kts touching on the Virgins. This is the Northern energy. GFS had this a tad North a few days ago when we first started picking up on this. EURO took it up to the OBX and absorbed it in to the front and tried to spin up weak OBX Low. Has since backed off.2016-07-16_063657Here’s the latest 72HR wind wave out of the National Hurricane Center going Monday into Tuesday with a decent area of 8 Foot Seas. Again would like to see this lift further North for more of a solid swell push.2016-07-16_103411Needless to say there is some hope in the forecast as we are likely to see a fade after this pulse end of next week with a repeat performance with the next two waves headed for the Afrikan Coast.
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