This forecast update brought to you by Aqua East Surf Shop Neptune Beach Florida and Surf Into Summer. Visit them at 696 Atlantic Blvd or call the shop 904-246-2550. Tell them you heard it from DaBuh.
Wow seems like for ever and a day since we’ve had something to talk about in the forecast. If you follow us on our social feeds you know we posted there was a pattern change coming and that High Pressure would once again become the dominant feature in the Atlantic, which could ultimately open up the door on the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. Here it is. Thus far we’ve had 4 Named Systems in the Atlantic for 2016. Next on the list would be for the Duke…..of EARL. Viewers are reminded that the statistical peak of hurricane season is September 10th. Looking at the chart below, August 1st is where the natural progression of the season switches to the Cape Verde season. This is where areas of Low pressure move off the West Afrikan Coast over or North of the Islands. August 1st is two weeks away.This morning satellite imagery showing the first signs of this seasonal transitional phase. Looking at the image NE of the Virgin Islands gives us our first hint North of the 15 Line with some slight rotation. This is getting zapped by Saharan Dust. Its the rotation North of 15 we look at. Then theres the current wave moving off the coast.The two factors that have limited Tropical Activity for the Atlantic thus far has been SAL and the ITCZ suppressed to the South, with no tropical energies above the 15 Line until now. Some of you may remember the reference to the movie we made “Run Silent Run Deep” about 30 days ago. This sent all tropical energy to the EPAC and it has exploded. They are now on ESTELLE currently 90% next 5 days. Heres this mornings look at SAL. Although models show no development through the 3rd possibly 4th week of July this is the pattern we are looking for. Two tropical waves moving in tandem. First one rolls off knocks the dust out of the air making way for the second one. You can see in the image, the dent the wave moving off currently has put in it. The negative is the waves look dry to start.
More on that below. Here’s the latest 72 hour wind wave out of the National Hurricane Center and the beginning phase of what appears to be an extended period of ride-able surf coming. Large area of seas developing mainly 5-6 feet in ESE trade swell patches of 5-8. Need to see 8-10 to start getting into the solid range but we will take it. Would have liked to see the red box above the 30 line a little more. Weight and Sea.Latest 48 hour swell forecast out of the Ocean Prediction Center showing some 8-10 second swell periods developing so this is a minor bump for this weekend.The main bulk looks to arrive Wednesday into Thursday at the moment keep in mind this can change. Heres a look at the 00Z GFS for Monday. For those of you who saw our posts on social media yesterday we talked about the Northern Extension Tropical Wave. These can sometimes help put a pinch in the gradient adding a bit more to winds. Thats it NE of the Virgins. With High pressure making an appearnce in the Atlantic all week and possibly then sum. ESE fetch all the way into Fl keeping in mind seas already generated next 72 detailed above.Tuesday repeat performance. Look back to Afrika and another wave on the 15 LineWednesday moving into the Atlantic. Notice in the image below the shape of the High as compared to the two previous days. Theres a dip through the MDR. Not sure of summer time Island surf breaks but this should provide some NE windswell. Also take note for Wednesday it looks like the tail end of the front will be into the SE. This pattern is known to increase chance for homegrown development.Thursday leaving lingering Low pressure SW Caribbean and the Tropical Wave off the coast of Afrika hopefully knocking more dust out of the air AND the tail end of the front drifting off the OBX. Still with a nice Easterly flow keeping surf ride-able compliments of stationary high.Friday take note over Cuba through the OBX and again NE of the Virgins. This is recipe for homegrown although again models show nothing developing. Just a pattern that needs to be watched.
Just a tidbit when you go back up and look at the first image of this post. We could conceivably go the entire month of July Tropical Cyclone Free in the Atlantic. But then there is this Stay Tuned for the next Update.