Heres a shot we took earlier this morning. As discussed in our previous updates a strong WSW flow has developed off the U.S. East Coast leading to small for all. Low over Nova Scotia will move up towards the Tip of Greenland and a “NEW” incoming GALE moves in to take it’s place in about 96 hours. For those who follow on our social feeds this is the system last week the GFS was showing South of Nova Scotia over open water giving hope to NE Groundswell. EURO had it over land. GFS has now come on board with EURO making this system a non swell producer however reinforcing Westerly flow as seen here in the image below. This is sometimes defined as a repetitive weather pattern. We just went through COLIN followed by his trough that mustard up a 10% chance of development out of the National Hurricane Center for a brief period two days ago. It will be in the trough of this next incoming GALE as it gets over Nova Scotia and like its predecessor move up towards the Tip of Greenland do we get the chance to possibly see DANIELLE off the SE U.S. Coast. Remember we are 4 for 7 over the last 7 years on early seasonal starts of tropical cyclone development. 1 year does not make a trend and 7 is too short but with COLIN the earliest named C storm there may just be a trend developing.This is the 06Z GFS for next Friday. If you look at the image above which today is Friday and see the little donut hole East of Florida and compare to the image below for next Friday you get the idea of repetitive pattern. There was hope that we could have got a little spinner going East of Florida this time but it didn’t work out. Heres whats left of COLIN trough and front.Little closer look and all though models show nothing developing we will continue to monitor this through the day today. This is over the Gulfstream and if anything could see some strong afternoon T-Storms develop.
Leave you with this for the moment. Image for next Saturday and is based off the GFS.
NE winds 35KTS off the SE U.S. Coast.
EURO not as excited and deeper in the run. This is 10 days. AS a reminder this is one run of many more to come. Again it’s not just the model it’s recognizing the pattern.
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Check this post this afternoon as we may add an update here after the afternoon model runs come out.