10:00AM EST MAY 28th 2016
Getting super super pumped with this storm forecast to develop SE of Newfoundland over the next 48-72 hours as a Major Swell Source. Models continue to suggest a possible DOUBLE MAJOR setting up in the North Atlantic with a SOLID Northerly Swell component. It is looking more and more likely with each passing run the swell will be far reaching along with being unprecedented for this time of year to come out of the North Atlantic at this magnitude and latitude. We will cover that in just a few moments with the overnight run of the EURO/ECMWF which did not disappoint. GFS showing slightly weaker scenario. Irregardless of differences in both models, it appears likely now that a MAJOR SWELL Event is about to unfold in the NATLC most of next week.
But first, lets get 91L out of the way soon to be BONNIE ? Heres the current wind map. Solid Swell filling into NE Florida Beaches this moring behind NE Wrap. As soon as I push publish I'm out. NE winds have elevated Surf heights this morning along the SE Coast.
Winds are forecast to go offshore Sunday East Florida Coast up into Georgia with possible fun surf alert conditions right locations. Continued onshore choppy surf heading into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic behind SE Flow.
Seas are forecast to increase next 24, 12-14 Feet. These type of systems are hard to forecast from a surf forecast perspective but consider this a tune up as appears another shot at Tropical coming going into second week of June. So stay tuned in for that. Likely GOMEX at the moment.
If you have been following along you know we have not had much concern with the above as far as surf. We began focusing last week on the NATLC, as models began showing signs of a Possible Major Swell Event coming. If you didn't see yesterdays video, go back one post and watch it to get the idea and follow up back here.
Heres the latest NOAA OPC 96 HOUR Surface forecast showing the same storm we have been detailing SE of Newfoundland. The Low responsible is just moving into the Atlantic today over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. What I want you to notice is the second L coming in, and the distance between the X's (Forecast Locations) with the 988. It's not shifting much increasing duration of Northerly flow before openning a little bit.
This is now showing up good in the latest NOAA 96hr Swell Forecast. 12-13 Second NE Swell 15-18 Second leading edge. I say leading edge because of the pre-existing NE Swell in the water from AZORES Low several days ago. Additionally this will be a fanning swell. Notice how it is fanning out with leading edge not to far from OBX.
Seas forecast to increase to 9 METERS thats 30 FEET Qualifying for Major Swell Event Status. Major Swell Event is defined as Storm System where as seas increase in excess 25 Feet in long period ground swell. So here is todays visible and what you are witnessing is an amazing look at pre development of a RARE NATLC Storm for this time of year. The Rarity comes in because models put it just a notch above the 40 line. That line is from the Mid-Atlantic over to Portugal. Because of the more Southerly location to the line means those in the Islands and into Florida if plays out right will be CLOSER to the swell source.
Heres how EURO SEAS it in last nights run already knowing NOAA calling for seas to 30 Feet and NE Groundswell developing. 91L INVEST/BONNIE on the Left Coast 988MB LOW DEVELOPING SE of Newfoundland. NE Fetch aimed at the Bahamas to PR Swell. Image for Monday. Happy Memorial Day thank you to the men and women who serve and may God Bless Amerika
TUESDAY: Low throwing more Northerly Swell component witch is good news for Jesper and the BoyZ at Surf Camp NGOR. How I want you to think about this is picture a dime and a 50 cent piece. The dime sitting on South Carolina and the 50 Cent piece staring at you in your face. Now ask yourself which one gunna throw more water.1026 MB HIGH will allow the swell to propagate unimpeded.
Wednesday and Thursday is where the Second L mentioned above enters the Atlantic.
NEXT FRIDAY with already the first round of NE Ground swell in the water EURO Sets it up again. This time with two dimes. The amazing part is I see two dimes and a nickel off the Mid-Atlantic down through the Bahamas then take that to the bank #OBX (Remnant 91 ?) that just might make a quarter.
Will have a look at todays afternoon model run and will cut updated video.
Stay tuned to the forecast.
PS the header image follow the image above and is for next Sunday. This is coming from one of the most reliable models out there. You do the math on how many days the EURO says 50 Cent will be performing in the North Atlantic Arena.
Video Update Coming later this afternoon.
TELL ALL U FRENS
MO FRENS MO BETTA