91L INVEST Possible BONNIE Storm Force Low SE Newfoundland


Have been waiting to pull the trigger on a full update until we got a better fix on what has now become 91L INVEST East of the Bahamas. National Hurricane Center now at 80% chance of development next 4-5 Days. In our last update we mentioned that we weren't really all excited about it but had turned our focus on a large area of Low pressure SE of Newfoundland as a major swell source. More on that below.

Heres one of the last visible images of the day. I have enhanced it for brightness. We had some questions earlier on whether or not 91 may be trying to relocate a little further SW closer to the Bahamas. Theres like dual rotations.2016-05-26_202346 Latest 72hr surface forecast showing Low pressure possibly BONNIE on the SC coast in about 72 hours.2016-05-26_214454Keep this in mind and is one of the reason I've had to wait models after showing a weak system tried to crank it up today in the latest runs, It takes time to take that info and spread it across the spectrum so all this below here in reference to 91L is subject to change. This is the current wind forecast for Friday. Some 30KT NE winds coming out of the Bahamas shadow.2016-05-26_204139Seas building around 10-12 feet this should put a pulse in the water. As of report time winds on East Canav ENE 10-15Kts seas 3-4 feet. We will watch this buoy tomorrow.2016-05-26_215118Then Saturday Low just off the SE coast with ESE Trade flow and backside of Low aimed at the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. EAST FLORIDA SURFERS unless this thing can crank up I would not expect much. There is a shot at some SE trade and could be a fun wave. But for those who automatically associate big waves coming because you hear Tropical Storm it doesn't always work that way. That goes for anybody thats gunna drive over. NO GUARANTEES 2016-05-26_204635Then on Sunday Low pressure, possibly BONNIE, on the SC Coast. Heres that shot at ESE trade for East Florida with offshore winds for North Florida Sunday morning. ESE winds working there way into Mid-Atlantic waters
From here the models hook this up towards the OBX. Where gunna leave this part of the forecast here and will do another update on 91L INVEST and any changes overnight so stay tuned in for that. For now looks like all the wind and wind swell direction aimed at the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic Coast.2016-05-26_205844Now going back to our last update and something we continue to look into. The latest 96hr Surface forecast map out of NOAA OPC showing storm developing SE of Newfoundland.2016-05-26_220848Seas increasing 20-25 Feet Image in Meters2016-05-26_162325This will get some Longer period ground swell going. The first line of green you see is some 8-10 Second NE Ground swell being generated by the AZORES low we talked about in our updates a few days ago. The patch of Green and Yellow is new swell from storm being generated. Image is for Memorial Day so swell still several days out so we are talking Mid to late week,2016-05-26_221230
Then the European model brings in another Massive Low to the NATLC. Again this is the ytpe of pattern you would expect to see in winter. Now see that smaller one on the left ? That is possibly the remnants of 91L INVEST/BONNIE. About the same size as forecast. Looking at the image which one you think produces bigger swell.
2016-05-26_222017
Thats it for now guys. Wish I had more exciting news.
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