First Tropical Waves of the 2016 ATLC Tropical Cyclone Season

Interesting developments in the overnight. National Hurricane Center Miami Florida now on board with season first Tropical Waves of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. Two waves are analyzed in the current surface analysis.
2016-05-21_064906For those who follow us on our social media platforms we have been referencing a shear line in our post last several days. This shear line created a traffic jam along the Monsoonal Trough disrupting it from it's natural state of a East to West flow. Currently NW Shear over Cuba 40-50KTS  is blowing back at this portion of the ITCZ into the Northern Coast of South Amerika. Again slowing it from its natural flow. Eventually the ITCZ has to return to that natural flow allowing the traffic to start moving again coming this way. The other thing the shear line did was orientate the ITCZ into a more SE to NW direction trying to provide lift of the zone a bit more North in latitude.
2016-05-21_053345Latest NOAA TAFB 72 HR Surface forecast showing just how slow traffic is moving. First wave just pushing through the Islands next several days where it will face another set of challenges if it's going to do anything. In comparison to automobile traffic, close to bumper to bumper but not yet as second wave looks to hang a bit and a little further South. Optimal would be draft behind first one which what models where showing back a few forecast ago. There was hope of that. For now this looks to pass all the way across the Caribbean. Lots of time to watch.2016-05-21_070521From here lots of uncertainty however models have consistently shown over the last several days some type of Tropical Feature lifting up and over Puerto Rico the Dominican Republic and be in the Bahamas. Time frame of late next week. This is also heading into Memorial Day Weekend. Latest run of the ECMWF showing weak Low pressure along the East Florida Coast then into the NE Gulf remaining weak.2016-05-21_071230On the contrary the GFS in it's runs has been a bit more bullish. This image advertised on our social media feeds a few days ago however looking at the latest EURO above could just be a rainmaker.2016-05-20_154743It is important not to focus on a single image or one particular model run. It is important to recognize the pattern and this particular pattern is known to produce tropical systems. The ingredients for the cake are there. Somebody just needs to pan it up and turn the oven on to bake. An important reminder, it is not necessary to have a named system to wreck your party or to produce pary waves. A slow moving TD/Storm can create as much havoc as a fast moving Hurricane. In some cases worse. We just witnessed Vero Beach coming in with an all time rain record and no names where called. Slow moving weak tropical systems tend to dump copious amounts of rain. Will have a video update later today. Waiting on longer loops of the visible satellite imagery. Stay Tuned.

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Stay tuned for video update. Will post it here in this post as an update.

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