We apologize to our non social media followers for non website updates as of late. Has not been much to talk about. Most have enjoyed the fun at times little ESE bump last several days. The areas along the fronts we were monitoring have now washed out. Models starting NEW trend towards the positive last 48 hours. Looks like larger surf coming with what looks to be a slight pattern shift in the extended forecast. As mentioned in our previous updates "Rule of Thumb" Re "Tail Ends of Fronts" during Tropical season the next one is gathering and will be on it's way shortly so here we go again. Last time models weren't showing any development. So for new followers to our style of forecasting last week forecast updates is what we call Wish Casting in the forecast community. Sometimes in Wish Casting you can eat your Lucky Charms and the surf turns out magically delicious. Didn't pan out but some fun ESE lines showed up and down the coast to say the least. We are less than 24 hours out to officially start the 2016 Tropical Cyclone Season for the Western Hemi. Season officially starts in the EPAC May 15th and on the Atlantic side June 1st.
Looking at the image below SW to NE Flow. Energy you see over TEX/MEX will begin to slide this way as the Low over the Great Lakes region slowly spins away towards the NE.
This next front also brings the potential for a super soaker setting up with an outside chance of seeing BONNIE off the Mid-Atlantic or SE U.S. Coast. Image for next Saturday showing Low Pressure just South of the OBX. Next Saturday is 6 days and confidence in the models increases in a 5 day window so something we will be watching.Latest out of NOAA OPC 96HR Surface forecast already setting it up sliding low pressure out off the Mid-Atlantic around Monday. Looking at the image below it's the X and Arrow just outside of the frame that moves off the coast around Wednesday. This is the energy for the shot at BONNIE.
Latest wind forecast for Thursday (5 Days) showing NE wind flow developing off the Mid-Atlantic into the OBX.By Saturday (7 Days) 30KT winds developing along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.We will leave the update here for now as we start to get outside of model comfort zone. Latest run of the GFS moves the Low above slightly towards the East then has it meandering for several days off the coast with a second shot at BONNIE (If the first one doesn't pan out) or, shot at COLIN in about 10 Days.
Weight and Sea
Stay tuned for the next forecast update.