Storm Force Low Near Portugal Low Pressure Trough Over Hispaniola


Start this update off for Island followers. If you were following our forecast about a month back this is the same idea as the UK Blocking Low we were forecasting back then. Storm Force Low near Portugal forecast to produce wide spread NE Groundswell 15-18 seconds next 72-96 hrs.2016-05-08_055616Latest Swell forecast out of the OPC next 72-96 hrs. NOT SURE if it will have any real size as we get closer to forecast will go into a buoy watch and look at the buoys for trend.2016-05-08_093337
00Z GFS Showing decent fetch of NE winds and seas are forecast to increase excess 25 feet. Obviously not any winter caliber surf but does offer a possible bump coming. Stay tuned for updates.
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Closer to home and a update on the ESE Bump coming and Low Pressure Trough. Models show no development and environmental conditions are unfavorable.2016-05-08_092401
Last year around this time image May 4th.2016-05-08_100528Yesterdays May 7th. Pretty similar pattern to the above image with obvious differences. 4 days later in the above image this setup produced Tropical Storm ANA around May 8th, the earliest U.S. land falling tropical cyclone on record.2016-05-08_100402Although development is not anticipated this go around partial energy is forecast to lift back towards the West next several days and could provide additional wave energy as it lifts very similar to Northern Extensions of Tropical Waves as they pass through the Atlantic.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016

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Latest Swell forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing ESE trade wind swell next 48-72 hrs 8-10 seconds developing.2016-05-08_101818Kicker would be any tightening of the gradient as the trough approaches. As of now, not seeing it in the wind forecast or latest model runs but it's why we watch in Real-Time. Nothing in weather is absolute until it happens in Real-Time. Can almost guarantee without going to look back, we were saying the same thing last year before ANA developed and the Rule of Thumb,  Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts During Tropical Season. Will go into a buoy watch here shortly so stay tuned for the updates. Remember as surfers we don't need a named system to produce surf and there could be a super fun round coming although likely short lived.2016-05-08_103127
Although the GFS trended weaker in the overnight still showing Possble BONNIE in a couple of weeks. Long ways out one run of many. Stay tuned for the next update2016-05-08_104536

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