Start this post with a forecasters note as we transition into the beginning phase of the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season. The 2016 Season officially begins June 1st for the Atlantic and May 15th for the EPAC. As we head into the season, it's time to bring out old sayings and rules of thumbs and reminders. We gave you a Rule of Thumb in our previous updates about Fronts in tropical season.
"Always Watch Tail Ends of Fronts or Along Dying or Stalled Fronts for an Area of Low pressure to Develop."
Today here's one of our favorite sayings, or tropical reminders.
"A Slow Moving Tropical Depression/Storm, Can Have as much Devastating Loss Impact as a Fast Moving Hurricane."
In some cases worse. Think about that. A fast moving Hurricane can be here today and then you can clean up tomorrow, vs days of endless tropical rains and 35-40Kt winds over the same area. No work for people who make a living outside unless you cutting trees or clearing pipe. For the NON surfing community who may be new to DaBuh.com we hope you stick with us through the 2016 Tropical Atlantic Cyclone Season. It's starting to shape up as if it will be a busy one.
Weight and Sea.
Alright surfers, here's the possible shot a a little ESE Bump coming. Front continues to die out and has become nearly stationary. It's actually a double dying front one wet one dry. The dry over SOFLO the wet over the Islands. Weak cyclonic rotations along the fronts. Wind shear remains high and models show no development. But this does not mean we don't monitor. Always watching here at DaBuh.com. Looking at the image below this is a classic example of how the season gets started and can produce "Homegrown Development". Areas of Low pressure developing along dying fronts or tail ends of fronts. Our definition of Homegrown Tropical Development is defined by models not seeing it and development in our backyard. Homegrown Development gives you less time to prepare and why it's important to monitor for the signs of development. Looking at the image below you can see that if environmental conditions became magically favorable overnight everybody will be like what ? The season doesn't start til June 1st. Tropical Cyclones can develop in the Atlantic any month of the calendar year and we are still sticking by our call and anticipate seeing some early seasonal development.
Yesterday on our Social Feeds we posted some back to back runs of the GFS showing Possible BONNIE coming up. It's a long ways out at 2 weeks so highly suspect and the GFS has switched up a bit in the overnight shifting over to the Bay of C. The famed EURO model showing hints end of the run at the Day 10 mark with weak Low presure moving into the SW Carib. Here's the image posted yesterday on our feeds. 12Z GFS for 5-22. Looking at the IR image above you get the picture. Lots of time to watch one run of many.
Now on to that ESE Bump and the forecast. Partial energy of front forecast to lift back NW towards the Bahamas next 72 hours or so. Latest NOAA Swell forecast out of the National Hurricane Center showing some 8-10 second ESE Swell component setting up Monday into Tuesday. Unclear at the moment on size but could ultimately end up being a quick shot of some fun longboard waves select locations. We will be keeping an eye on the buoys over the weekend for trends so stay tuned for updates.Heres the current wind map and what will help produce the periods in the above swell forecast.
The only thing lacking is elevated seas. What we will be monitoring for is the left over energy from the front. There is a chance for some tightening of the gradient on Monday into Tuesday as the remnant trough lifts towards the Bahamas however latest wind forecast has trended a tad negative overnight. Any tightening here could add some slight additional wave energy to the water. What ever is coming it won't be here long and a quick return to small for all looks to follow.
Island followers. We just started looking at this. Nothing winter caliber but it looks like an area of Low Pressure off Portugal combined with High Pressure in the Atlantic is going to produce a wide area of NE Swell periods.Latest NOAA OPC Swell forecast. System currently producing seas excess 20 FEET mainly in Northerly Swell. Image for Tuesday into Wednesday. Obviously with time distant travel for what ever may reach the Islands would need another two day travel time. Nothing huge but maybe a bump coming for you as well so stay tuned for updates on this as well. Just caught our eye this morning so will look into it a bit further going into the weekend. Heres the idea.
Stay tuned for the next update.